From June 1949 through May 1972, Oklahoma wheat prices averaged $1.78 (Figure 1). The lowest price was $1.12, and the highest price was $2.32. The price range was $1.20. The average price change from one month to the next was a plus or minus 4.4 cents. This is a 2.5% change month to month. 

During the period June 1973 to May 2007, the average monthly price was $3.31. The lowest price was $1.35, and the highest price was $6.10. The price range was $4.75. The average monthly price change was 15 cents. This is a 4.5% change month to month. 

From June 2007 through September 2023, the average monthly price was $5.96. The lowest price was $2.97, and the highest price was $11. The average monthly price change was 36 cents. This is a 6.1% change month to month. 

Largest average monthly price change

The largest average monthly price change (plus or minus) from one month to the next was 56 cents for the 1949 to 1972 period, $1.90 for the 1972 to 2007 period, and $2.28 for the 2007 to 2023 period. 

Over time, Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices increased. With higher prices came more price volatility and risk. Farmers learned the value of staggering wheat sales rather than selling all their wheat at one time each marketing year. 

In recent years, wheat prices may have been distorted by four events: the 2005 ethanol mandate, the 2008 drought, COVID in 2020, and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Determining the “best” months to sell wheat within any given crop year (June through May) may be more difficult now than it was prior to the 2008/09 wheat marketing year. 

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Oklahoma monthly average wheat prices from June 2009 through May 2023 are used in the following analysis. The average prices received from staggering sales during the June through August (harvest) period, the June through December period, and the January through May period were calculated for each marketing year. 

Highest average wheat price

During the last five marketing years, selling wheat during the January through May period generated the highest average price (Jun – Dec $5.76; Jan – May $6.02). Using the five-year average from June 2018 through 2022 showed the price impact of COVID and the Russian invasion. 

Using 10-year average prices (June 13 through May 23) implies that Oklahoma and Texas wheat should be staggered into the market during harvest (June through August). Selling wheat during harvest produced an average price of $5.52 compared to $5.31 for the June through December period and $5.26 for the January through May period. 

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The price averages for the 2009/10 through 2022/23 wheat marketing years were $5.72 for harvest, $5.59 for June through December, and $5.48 for the January through May period. 

Using the 2009/10 through 2020/21 marketing year prices remove the price impact of COVID and the Russian invasion. The average harvest price was $5.42 compared to $5.24 for June through December and $5.03 for January through May.  

Best time to sell wheat

The analysis indicates that if you remove the COVID and Russian price impact for the last two years, selling wheat during harvest normally produces the highest average price. 

Who wants to go back to the “good old days” with lower prices and less volatility?