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Afternoon market recap: Corn prices lightly mixed in Monday’s session.

Ben Potter, Senior editor

March 18, 2024

5 Min Read
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At a Glance

  • May corn futures faced fractional losses
  • Soybeans down more than 0.75%
  • Wheat caught variable gains that mostly ranged between 1% and 2.5%

Grain prices were mixed on Monday, primarily due to several events unfolding overseas. What prices captured sizable gains after new attacks in Ukraine triggered a round of technical buying. Meantime, harvest progress in Brazil pushed soybean prices moderately lower. Corn prices were little-changed after a somewhat choppy session today.

A large section of the Corn Belt should remain completely dry between Tuesday and Friday, although parts of the Northern Plains, Southern Plains and Mid-South could catch some additional showers later this week, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Further out, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally cold, wet weather for the central U.S. between March 25 and March 31.

On Wall St., the Dow shifted 162 points higher in afternoon trading to reach 38,877 as the tech sector rebounded from recent losses. Energy futures moved noticeably higher, with crude oil up around 2% this afternoon to $82 per barrel on a reduction of exports from some major producers including Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Diesel rose more than 2% higher, with gasoline up around 1.25%. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.

On Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+1,500), soybeans (+2,000) and soyoil (+4,000) contracts but were net sellers of soymeal (-1,500) and CBOT wheat (-2,500).

Corn

Corn prices closed with fractional gains following some uneven technical maneuvering to start the week. May futures eased 0.25 cents to $4.3650, while July futures inched 0.25 cents higher to $4.4925.

Corn basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Monday but did trend 2 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant and a penny lower at an Illinois river terminal today.

Corn export inspections moved slightly higher week-over-week to 48.8 million bushels. That was also on the very high end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 35.4 million and 49.2 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 21.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still moderately higher than last year’s pace so far, with 909.1 million bushels.

Brazilian consultancy AgRural reported that most of the country’s second corn crop has now been planted, with 97% progress through March 14. That’s a bit ahead of last year’s pace of 93%. “With work already finished or nearing completion in the main producing regions, the focus is now on the warmer and drier weather in March,” the group noted.

Ukraine’s farm ministry expects the country’s 2024 corn plantings to fall 4.5% year-over-year, with estimated plantings at around 9.546 million acres. That’s better than governmental expectation of a 9% drop in February, however. Farmers are limited in switching to more profitable soybeans due to scarce funding. Ukrainian corn exports are expected to erode 21% lower in 2024/25 to 807 million bushels.

China’s corn imports in the first two months of 2024 reached 243.7 million bushels, which is a 16.2% increase from the prior year’s pace so far. China’s sorghum imports over the same period jumped more than 393% year-over-year, with 63.4 million bushels.

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Preliminary volume estimates were for 210,097 contracts, which was moderately below Friday’s final count of 258,132.

Soybeans

Soybean prices trended moderately lower on Monday as harvest progress in South America spurred a round of technical selling. May futures dropped 10 cents to $11.8825, with July futures down 9.75 cents to $12.0275.

The rest of the soy complex also eroded into the red today. May soymeal futures fell more than 0.75%, while May soyoil futures stumbled 1.25% lower.                            

Soybean basis bids faded 2 cents lower at an Indiana processor and at an Illinois river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Monday.

Soybean export inspections eased modestly below the prior week’s tally after reaching 25.2 million bushels. That was also toward the lower end of trade estimates, which ranged between 11.0 million and 42.3 million bushels. China was the No. 1 destination, with 20.3 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still trending moderately below last year’s pace, with 1.314 billion bushels.

Brazilian consultancy AgRural reported that the country’s 2023/24 soybean harvest is 63% complete through March 14, up eight points from the prior week and slightly ahead of last year’s pace of 62% so far. AgRural noted that some regions had delayed planting after adverse weather but added that “the expectation is for good yields … since these later areas have been favored by good rainfall.”

Preliminary volume estimates were for 171,644 contracts, sliding 17% below Friday’s final count of 206,363.

Wheat

Wheat prices benefitted from a round of technical selling spurred by new Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure (more on this below), which led to some double-digit gains. May Chicago SRW futures climbed 13.75 cents to $5.4225, May Kansas City HRW futures rose 10.75 cents to $5.77, and May MGEX spring wheat futures added 6.25 cents to $6.5275.

Wheat export inspections spilled moderately lower week-over-week, landing at 11.1 million bushels. That was also on the very low end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 11.0 million and 18.4 million bushels. Mexico topped all destinations, with 4.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still tracking moderately below last year’s pace, with 504.9 million bushels.

Russia initiated additional drone and missile strikes in the Ukrainian port cities of Odesa and Mykolaiv, targeting port and other infrastructure sites in retaliation to a Ukrainian attack in Russia as the protracted war continues. Russia and Ukraine are both among the world’s top wheat exporters.

Russian consultancy Sovecon estimates that the country’s wheat exports will reach 176.4 million bushels in March. If realized, that would be a month-over-month increase of 17% and the largest monthly volume since last September, if realized. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.

South Korea purchased 2.4 million bushels of animal feed wheat from optional origins in a private deal that closed on Friday. The grain is for arrival around July 15. Another South Korean feedmill group also purchased 4.6 million bushels of animal feed wheat from the United States in a separate private deal that also closed last Friday.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 98,118 CBOT contracts, tracking moderately higher than Friday’s final count of 74,268.

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About the Author(s)

Ben Potter

Senior editor, Farm Futures

Senior Editor Ben Potter brings two decades of professional agricultural communications and journalism experience to Farm Futures. He began working in the industry in the highly specific world of southern row crop production. Since that time, he has expanded his knowledge to cover a broad range of topics relevant to agriculture, including agronomy, machinery, technology, business, marketing, politics and weather. He has won several writing awards from the American Agricultural Editors Association, most recently on two features about drones and farmers who operate distilleries as a side business. Ben is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism.

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