November 29, 2023
At a Glance
- December corn futures dip almost 0.5% lower, while soybeans stand slightly firm
- Wheat captured variable gains, with some contracts jumping more than 4% higher
- Plus: Learn more about some grain marketing tools that can help you protect and price your crops!
Grain prices spent another day in the green – with a few exceptions. Wheat had the most upside after Russia’s decision to tighten some exports prompted a round of technical buying that lifted most contracts more than 2% higher. Soybeans made modest inroads, meantime, while corn finished with mixed results.
More rain is expected for large parts of the eastern Corn Belt, Mid-South and Southeast between Thursday and Sunday, with some areas set to gather another 1” or more during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts more seasonally wet weather for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest between December 6 and December 12, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the central U.S. during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow trended 131 points higher in afternoon trading to 35,548 as investors hope to close out the strongest month of 2023.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soybeans (+4,500), soyoil (+4,500) and CBOT wheat (+4,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-1,000) and soymeal (-4,000).
Corn prices weren’t able to move the needle much in either direction on Wednesday, finishing the session with modestly mixed results following some uneven technical maneuvering. December futures dropped 2 cents to $4.4950, while March futures added 2.25 cents to $4.7575.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm after trending 1 to 3 cents higher across three Midwestern locations on Wednesday.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn sales ranging between 23.6 million and 49.2 million bushels for the week ending November 23.
India, which is now the world’s most populous nation, indicated it will spend more than $141 billion to extend a current free grains program for another five years in an effort to boost food and nutrition security for more than 800 million of its citizens. “Free food grains will strengthen food security and mitigate any financial hardship of the poor and vulnerable sections of the population,” according to a governmental statement.
Two South Korean importers purchased a total of 7.9 million bushels of animal feed corn in tenders that closed earlier today. The grain can be sourced from optional origins, including the United States, and is for arrival in March.
Grain traveling across the nation’s railways totaled another 17,951 carloads last week. That brings cumulative totals in 2023 up to 876,753 carloads, which is 11.3% below last year’s pace so far.
“The past decade of volatile markets has led to the reminder of importance of taking advantage of cash marketing strategies when prices are opportunistic,” notes Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. “The reality of lower grain prices compared to one year ago at this same time frame has reminded many producers of the importance of being updated on the various grain marketing tools available for helping to protect and price your crop.” Blohm walks through some of these tools in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 483,289 contracts, trending 9% below Tuesday’s final count of 532,290.
Soybean prices managed meager gains on some light technical buying today. January futures picked up 0.75 cents to $13.4725, while March futures added 1.25 cents to $13.66.
The rest of the soy complex eroded into the red. December soymeal contracts eased 0.25% lower, while December soyoil contracts lost more than 1.25%.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Wednesday but did trend a penny higher at an Ohio elevator and 2 cents lower at an Illinois river terminal today.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean sales ranging between 31.2 million and 57.0 million bushels for the week ending November 23. Analysts also expect to see soymeal sales ranging between 150,000 and 425,000 metric tons, plus up to 20,000 MT of soyoil sales.
What are the best strategies to create a winning 2024 grain marketing plan? We took a close look at ways to develop a game plan that could give your farm the best chance to succeed next year – click here to learn more.
South Korea re-issued an international tender to purchase 1.8 million bushels of GMO-free soybeans that closes on December 5. The grain is for arrival in January and February of 2025.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 197,526 contracts, tracking moderately lower than Tuesday’s final count of 243,001.
Wheat prices made solid inroads on Wednesday on a round of technical buying and short-covering. Russia’s decision to ban durum exports in the first half of 2024 added fuel to today’s fire. December Chicago SRW futures rose 12.5 cents to $5.5625, December Kansas City HRW futures climbed 27.75 cents to $6.4075, and December MGEX spring wheat futures added 2.5 cents to $6.97.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect to see wheat sales ranging between 7.3 million and 20.2 million bushels for the week ending November 23.
Heavy rains in southeastern Australia have led to some crop losses and reduced up to 36.7 million bushels of milling wheat into lower-quality feed wheat. Total production could still surpass one billion bushels. Australia is one of the Southern Hemisphere’s top wheat exporters.
Morocco plans to import an additional 91.9 million bushels of soft wheat between January and April as the country continues to shore up shortfalls due to its drought-plagued local crop. Many of these sales will likely originate from European producers.
Lebanon issued an international tender to purchase 1.1 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on December 5. Additional details regarding shipping were not immediately available.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 122,672 CBOT contracts, fading moderately below Tuesday’s final count of 141,362.
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