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WHEAT SCOOPS: Potential 2024 wheat harvest prices

The quality and quantity of Oklahoma and Texas wheat will play a significant role.

Kim Anderson

February 6, 2024

3 Min Read
Wheat Scoops

At this writing, wheat may be forward contracted for 2024 harvest delivery in Pond Creek, Okla., and Perryton, Texas for $5.60 (-$0.55 KEN ’24). The 2024 wheat harvest price in Altus, Okla., is $5.30 (-$0.85 KEN ’24). These forward contract prices may be the best predictors of the 2024 wheat harvest prices for Pond Creek, Perryton, and Altus.  

A caveat is that the market normally puts a 10- to 15-cent risk factor in wheat forward contract prices. Using a 10-cent risk factor produces an average harvest price estimate of $5.70 for Pond Creek and Perryton. 

The one thing known with a large degree of certainty about the 2024 wheat harvest price is that the Pond Creek, Perryton, and Altus prices will not be $5.70 or $5.40.  

Another prediction of 2024 average wheat harvest price may be produced by calculating the change in prices between the average January wheat price and the average harvest price within the same calendar year.  

Table 1 shows the average January daily prices and the average harvest prices for the January 2009 through January 2024 period for Pond Creek and Perryton (Table 1). The average wheat harvest prices are the average of June, July, and August daily wheat prices for each marketing year.  

For Pond Creek and Perryton, the average January (2009 through 2023) daily wheat price was $5.65. The average change between January and harvest is $0.05, which implies an expected 2024 average harvest wheat price of $5.70. This is nearly the same as the current forward contract price.  

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For the eight years of declining prices (January to harvest), the average price decline was $0.63. For the seven years of higher prices, the average price increase was $0.83. This implies a potential average harvest price range of $5.07 ($5.70 - $0.63) to $6.53 ($5.70 - $0.83). Only 50% of the time will prices be in this range.  

The largest price decline was $0.93, which implies an average harvest price floor of $4.77 ($5.70 - $0.93). The largest price increase was $1.57, which implies a price ceiling of $7.27 $5.70 + $1.57). Given the volatility in the current wheat market, a price range of $4.77 to $7.27 for the 2024 Oklahoma and Texas wheat harvest is probably realistic.  

The average price range (highest daily price minus the lowest daily price within each harvest) for the 2009 through 2023 harvests was $1.83.  This implies that, if the 2024 average harvest price is $5.70, on average the prices could be as low as $4.78 ($5.70 - $0.92) or as high as $6.62 ($5.70 + $0.92) during the harvest period. 

Related:2024 wheat prices speculated to be lower than '23

The largest price ranges within the harvest periods (June through August) were $3.42 (2022), $3.12 (2010), and $3.04 (2012). The lowest price ranges were $0.78 (2013), $0.97 (2019) and $0.80 (2020). These rangers show the price uncertainty within any given harvest period. 

We know that the market situation will change between now and the 2024 wheat harvest. The above analysis shows that actual prices are uncertain. 

More important than price may be the quantity and quality of the Oklahoma and Texas 2024 wheat harvest. Producers control soil fertility, which helps determine the quality. Mother Nature will be the major determinate of quantity and, to some extent, quality.  

With the data that we now have, the expected 2024 wheat harvest price is $5.70. Prices will either be higher or lower, depending on how the wheat supply and demand situation changes from current expectations. 

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