Missed some market news this week? Check out what Bryce Knorr and Ben Potter have been writing about.

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Grain futures – and just about everything else – are sharply lower this morning after a pair of tweets from President Trump Sunday cast new doubts on trade negotiations with China. With the president threatening to hike tariffs on China as soon as Friday, money managers headed to the exits. Planting delays could also face a turning point over the next week, with weather forecasts suggesting a drying trend finally emerging next week.

The U.S. ramped up pressure on China ahead of this week’s round of trade talks, threatening new tariffs and claiming negotiators backed off on some of their previous promises. The Chinese have one card in their hand – 275 million bushels of unshipped soybean purchases made after the two side began working on a deal back in December. Markets drifted lower again overnight as no one knows what will happen when discussions resume Thursday.

Financial markets continue to come under pressure from questions about the fate of trade talks with China. Those negotiations could have a big impact on farm markets, but grain prices are holding firm so far on short covering. Traders are jockeying for position ahead of Friday’s USDA reports, while watching another storm that could keep barge traffic on the Mississippi River stalled until the end of next week.

Grain futures are lower again overnight as traders get ready for what promises to be interesting sessions into the weekend. Trade talks with China in Washington enter what could be a make-or-break moment with new U.S. tariffs set to go into effect. USDA Friday also releases its first monthly production, supply and demand estimates for 2019 crops in the U.S. and around the world, with plenty of uncertainty about what the numbers will say. The market whets its appetite for risk today with release of the latest export sales data.

Markets are quiet as the sun rises in Chicago, but don’t look for that calm to continue on what could be a very volatile day. USDA releases its first monthly production, supply and demand estimates for 2019 crops at 11 a.m. CST, while negotiators from the U.S. and China continue trade talks in Washington. The U.S. raised tariffs on another $200 billion in imports from China at midnight, with more threatened if a deal isn’t done.

Feedback from the Field

Heavy rains pounded parts of the Midwest last week, inundating a swath of the country from central Texas to southern Michigan. But even in that area, some fields were planted before the storms hit, while other parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest received lighter coverage.

USDA data

The latest export inspection report from USDA, out Monday morning, showed an-other lackluster round of results, as experts continue to ask: When will China sales pick up? Corn and wheat inspections fell week-over-week, with both grains falling below the rate needed to match USDA forecasts.

Corn planting remains sluggish amid soggy spring weather, reaching just 23% completion as of May 5, per the latest USDA Crop Progress report. Farmers did make some forward progress this past week, moving up from the prior week’s tally of 15%. However, planting progress slightly behind analyst expectations of 25%, moderately behind 2018’s pace of 36% and just half of the five-year average of 46%.

Anyone in search of positive export trends are bound to be disappointed by the latest USDA export report, out Thursday morning, with corn and soybean totals coming in well below analyst estimates. Soybeans turned in a particularly sour per-formance, notes Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.

Grain futures are posting modest losses this morning, led by selling in corn after USDA’s first estimate of 2019 ending stocks was much larger than expected. Corn futures were down more than 1% following the report’s release, with soybeans falling less than 0.5%.

Market recaps

Grain futures are little changed this morning following a choppy overnight session as traders get ready for an eventful day. USDA releases its first monthly forecasts of production, supply and demand at 11 a.m. CST, while negotiators sit down for more trade talks and digest new tariffs against imports from China.

A mostly bearish round of USDA data, released this morning in the agency’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, kept grain prices suppressed Friday. Losses were small after falling significantly yesterday – with the exception of Kansas City HRW futures, which dropped double digits on worries over rising domestic production.

Outlooks

Basis Outlook - The flood of 2019 may not be the worst on record, but it’s bad enough to cause the CBOT to declare force majeure on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers, where high water presents barges from loading.

Fertilizer Outlook - Weather disruptions and signs of international demand caused a big spike in urea last week. But other parts of the fertilizer market could ratchet lower in an industry where little can be taken for granted.

Corn Outlook - With corn planting slow and likely about to get slower, growers are understandably frustrated at the market’s ability to sustain a rally. Instead of a rebound, futures made new contract lows in the last full week of April trading.

Soybean Outlook - USDA is likely to come out with a first monthly estimate of 2019 supply and demand on May 10 that doesn’t show much of a change from this year. The projection will still show burdensome supplies – and it might be optimistic.

Wheat Outlook - USDA on May 10 will provide its first estimate of winter wheat production and overall supply and demand for 2019. All signs point to an all-wheat crop that’s bigger than last year despite acreage that’s likely the lowest on record. The agency’s estimate of supplies leftover at the end of the 2019 marketing year 13 months from now may not increase much from this year. But they’ll still be plenty in a world where shortages of wheat are few and far between.

Energy/Ethanol Outlook - Farmers know all about the pain funds can inflict on their markets when the pack starts selling. But a bearish turn by funds in one commodity could help growers avoid pain -- at the pump.

Financial Outlook - The White House stepped up rhetoric for lower interest rates after the Federal Reserve showed it was in no hurry to change course on monetary policy at its May meeting. The urgency from an administration firing on all fronts came despite a flow of economic news that was just about as good as it gets.