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4 grain market reports to watch in June

Ag Marketing IQ: Stay on top of price waves by closely following planting and acreage reports for corn and soybean, then use risk management tools to harvest profit.

Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser

May 23, 2024

5 Min Read
Market chart on screen
Getty Images/primeimages

Wrapping up the month of May, grain futures prices continue to gyrate on slow planting concerns, soggy U.S. weather forecasts and global weather worries.

What’s happened

The month of June will bring additional fundamental news into the fold, likely allowing for plenty of price volatility.

As you’re busy wrapping up spring planting and fieldwork, there are four things to be mindful of heading into the month of June.

From a marketing perspective

These four items will likely create potential marketing opportunities to price your grain. They occur throughout the month, so mark these events on your calendar now.

1. Monday afternoon weekly crop progress reports and ratings. Every Monday afternoon at 3 p.m. Central, USDA announces U.S. planting progress, crop emergence, and quality ratings of the crops growing across the country.

In most years, these weekly crop progress reports are not necessarily market movers. This year, however, given the recent soggy weather and saturated soils in portions of the Midwest, traders will be eager to see planting progress reports on the corn and soybean crops, including geo-specific information.

With the continued rain in the forecast in the coming weeks, some farmers are murmuring about taking prevented planting. What seemed weeks ago like a sure thing for understanding planted acreage potential has shifted into becoming unknown – and that may lend to market price volatility.

For many Midwest states the insurance Final Plant Date for corn is May 31 and June 10 for soybeans. (Some states pushing final planting date for soybeans to June 15.)

That final corn planting date – Friday, May 31 – is sneaking up. The following Monday, June 3, could provide a glimpse of how many acres might not be planted by that important planting date for insurance purposes.

2. June 12 USDA WASDE report. This report will offer an extreme amount of fresh data for the trade to dissect and interpret. Traders will eye each demand category and ultimately how that could affect ending stocks estimates.

Trade also will be eager to see how – or if – the USDA adjusts the crop again in Brazil, this time due to recent flooding in Southern Brazil. Global ending stocks are important to note as well.

3. The June 28 Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acreage Report. With the slower spring planting, traders will be eager to see whether acres did indeed shift. Such shifts could affect the longer-term balance sheet and price outlook for the remainder of 2024.

The current corn planted acreage estimate for the 2024-25 growing season is 90 million acres with soybean acres coming in at 86.5 million acres.

Recent slow planting conditions make planting 90 million acres of corn less likely. If there is not good corn planting progress in the next week, we may see some corn acres get switched into soybeans.

4. The seasonal price tendency for both new crop corn and soybeans. The historical seasonal price pattern for corn and soybean futures strongly indicates a final price rally into early to mid-June. Please also be aware, when the seasonal summer high occurs, it usually peaks mid-June and then prices often slide lower until the harvest low.



Prepare yourself

In the coming weeks, continue to focus on cash sales and make sure you have a good handle on the crop insurance you purchased this year.

If you are of a bullish tone and recently made cash sales, and you now feel prices may trade higher, consider fixed risk strategies like buying call options.

If you are concerned that prices may fall lower and you want to protect unpriced bushels, then start looking at buying puts or purchasing short dated put options like I discussed last week.

Remember to work with your advisor regarding your risk tolerance, budget, entry and exit points.

History would suggest that the coming weeks will have substantial price volatility for grain futures. Which way prices trade largely depends on Mother Nature and the USDA.

Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X (previously Twitter): @naomiblohm, and at [email protected].

Disclaimer: The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.

About the Author(s)

Naomi Blohm

senior market adviser, Total Farm Marketing by Stewart Peterson

Naomi specializes at helping farmers understand how to manage cash marketing needs and understand the importance of managing basis, delivery point considerations, cash flow needs and storage capacity. She earned her Bachelor of Arts in Political Science with a minor in Agriculture Business at the University of Wisconsin in Platteville. She has a Master of Science in Adult Education with an emphasis in Ag Economics from the UW-Platteville and a Master Certificate in Global Education, from the UW-Oshkosh.

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