Wrapping up the month of May, grain futures prices continue to gyrate on slow planting concerns, soggy U.S. weather forecasts and global weather worries.

What’s happened

The month of June will bring additional fundamental news into the fold, likely allowing for plenty of price volatility.

As you’re busy wrapping up spring planting and fieldwork, there are four things to be mindful of heading into the month of June.

From a marketing perspective

These four items will likely create potential marketing opportunities to price your grain. They occur throughout the month, so mark these events on your calendar now.

1. Monday afternoon weekly crop progress reports and ratings. Every Monday afternoon at 3 p.m. Central, USDA announces U.S. planting progress, crop emergence, and quality ratings of the crops growing across the country.

In most years, these weekly crop progress reports are not necessarily market movers. This year, however, given the recent soggy weather and saturated soils in portions of the Midwest, traders will be eager to see planting progress reports on the corn and soybean crops, including geo-specific information.

With the continued rain in the forecast in the coming weeks, some farmers are murmuring about taking prevented planting. What seemed weeks ago like a sure thing for understanding planted acreage potential has shifted into becoming unknown – and that may lend to market price volatility.

For many Midwest states the insurance Final Plant Date for corn is May 31 and June 10 for soybeans. (Some states pushing final planting date for soybeans to June 15.)

That final corn planting date – Friday, May 31 – is sneaking up. The following Monday, June 3, could provide a glimpse of how many acres might not be planted by that important planting date for insurance purposes.

2. June 12 USDA WASDE report. This report will offer an extreme amount of fresh data for the trade to dissect and interpret. Traders will eye each demand category and ultimately how that could affect ending stocks estimates.

Trade also will be eager to see how – or if – the USDA adjusts the crop again in Brazil, this time due to recent flooding in Southern Brazil. Global ending stocks are important to note as well.

3. The June 28 Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acreage Report. With the slower spring planting, traders will be eager to see whether acres did indeed shift. Such shifts could affect the longer-term balance sheet and price outlook for the remainder of 2024.

The current corn planted acreage estimate for the 2024-25 growing season is 90 million acres with soybean acres coming in at 86.5 million acres.

Recent slow planting conditions make planting 90 million acres of corn less likely. If there is not good corn planting progress in the next week, we may see some corn acres get switched into soybeans.

4. The seasonal price tendency for both new crop corn and soybeans. The historical seasonal price pattern for corn and soybean futures strongly indicates a final price rally into early to mid-June. Please also be aware, when the seasonal summer high occurs, it usually peaks mid-June and then prices often slide lower until the harvest low.

Prepare yourself

In the coming weeks, continue to focus on cash sales and make sure you have a good handle on the crop insurance you purchased this year.

If you are of a bullish tone and recently made cash sales, and you now feel prices may trade higher, consider fixed risk strategies like buying call options.

If you are concerned that prices may fall lower and you want to protect unpriced bushels, then start looking at buying puts or purchasing short dated put options like I discussed last week.

Remember to work with your advisor regarding your risk tolerance, budget, entry and exit points.

History would suggest that the coming weeks will have substantial price volatility for grain futures. Which way prices trade largely depends on Mother Nature and the USDA.

Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X (previously Twitter): @naomiblohm, and at [email protected].

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