The question I get asked most (other than how to pronounce my last name) is when will we get a new farm bill? The truth is I don’t know. I’m not sure anyone else does either.
What I do know is weather forecasters make a comfortable living throwing out dubious precipitation percentages. I hear they don’t get docked for being wrong either. In that spirit of (somewhat) educated guessing, I present to you the farm bill barometer.
With the help of my colleagues and other experts much smarter than me, I ’ll attempt to periodically handicap the odds of getting a bill done this year. Feel free to use this info for wagering purposes.
By continuing to read, you release the author from any liability for gambling debts incurred.
New farm bill odds?
The chance of a new farm bill passing this year is 17%.
So where does that 17% come from? Well, looking at the legislative process from an uber simplistic perspective, eight things that need to happen for a new farm bill to become reality:
The agriculture committees in the House and Senate need to pass a bill.
The full House and Senate must then approve those bills.
When that happens, a committee will likely be created to hammer out a compromise between the two bills.
The full House and Senate must then approve the compromise
The President would then need to sign the bill into law.
In case you weren’t counting, that’s eight separate steps that need to be completed. So far, lawmakers have finished one.
In May, the House Agriculture Committee passed Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson’s Farm, Food, and National Security Act. That means one-eighth of the process has been completed. Break out the champagne- we’re12.5% there.
Over in the Senate, Democrat Ag Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow has floated a broad outline of what she plans to introduce. While we don’t’ know when she will unveil more details, we know it will be much different from Thompson’s plan.
This week, Senate Agriculture Committee Ranking Member John Boozman released his framework for a new farm bill. While similar to Thompson’s plan in many respects, it does have a few key differences.
For example, the House proposal expands some nutrition programs while the Seante version does not. The Senate bill also includes additional quality control reforms for the SNAP program.
Sources involved in drafting the Republican Senate plan say share the same goals as their house counterparts. However, the Senate framework takes a different approach to helping farmers add base acres.
Still, both bills include changes to Thrifty Food Plan and conservation funding that Democrats have consistently opposed.
Now some would argue the chances of a farm bill passing should be lower than 17%. That’s because Democrats controlling the Senate and White House aren’t likely to approve the Republican-drafted legislation. Of course, Democrats must also contend with election year politics, especially lawmakers in close races.
Reasons for optimism
Sen. Stabenow has done a lot of reaching across the aisle to craft farm bill deals many thought were impossible. While expressing disappointment with the Boozman plan, she still saw reason for hope.
“Ranking Member Boozman and I have had several conversations about getting our ideas on paper, so this is a welcome development,” she said “Now it is time to build upon the areas where we share common ground, of which there are many, and do the hard work of reaching a bipartisan compromise so we can finish our work.
Four Ag Committee Democrats also voted in favor of the House Republican plan, indicating they may be willing to compromise one some priorities.
Philosophical divisions still clear
House Ag Committee Ranking Member David Scott did not see much good in the Boozman’s proposal. He says Republicans have chosen to ignore Democrat warnings by putting forth policies, particularly on nutrition, that his party won’t accept. According to him, the worst-kept secret in the agriculture community is that a farm bill with the Republican’s Thrifty Food Plan will never become law.
“Who will acknowledge this reality first, House or Senate Republicans?” Scott said. “Or will they continue to place their ideological obsession with making massive cuts to SNAP over the real need of our farmers to enact a farm bill this year?”
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack says the Senate plan continues to “rehash the same tired fights rather than make meaningful progress for farmers and families. He says the country needs a bipartisan bill that is responsive to the needs of the many and the most, not just the few.
“It reminds me of a song from The Lovin’ Spoonful, ‘Did You Ever Have to Make Up Your Mind’ — just like the dilemma in the song, with one proposal they give generously to the few and on the other they take from the many and the most — picking up one proposal while leaving the other behind,” Vilsack says. “It’s time they make up their mind. You can’t claim to be for constrained spending but then use funny money to spend lavishly.
Thus far, no Republicans indicated any willingness to deviate from their party’s plan. With no official Democrat proposal on the table, there’s little motivation for them to essentially negotiate against themselves. We’ll see if that changes when Stabenow submits her official plan.
Is 17% too optimistic?
Maybe 17% is wishful thinking. I suppose lawmakers deserve some credit for doing something this year. People have been clamoring for farm bill drafts since this time last year. Getting a bill through committee is no easy task these days.
Of course, many on the Democrat side would argue that the Republican proposals aren’t actually progress. Still, lawmakers are talking. By today’s admittedly low standards, that’s a good thing. It doesn’t necessarily mean they are any closer to a new bill, but there is a chance.
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