by Bryce Baschuk 

President Donald Trump’s maximalist approach in recasting his nation’s trade relations may soon hit U.S. farmers and manufacturers, as America’s trade partners prepare retaliatory tariffs that could generate $3.45 billion in revenue.

In just the past week, the European Union threatened $1.6 billion of additional levies in response to U.S. tariffs on metal imports; Russia prepared $537.6 of added duties; Turkey $266.6 million; Japan $264.3 million; and India $165.6 million, according to filings with the World Trade Organization. China already imposed $611.5 million of additional retaliatory tariffs. 

Citing national security concerns, the U.S. imposed import duties of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum in March, giving regions including the EU, Mexico and Canada temporary exemptions while they negotiate alternate resolutions. While the EU has indicated a willingness to discuss means of resolving global steel overcapacity, European leaders have said they won’t begin negotiations until Trump has provided a permanent exemption on the metals tariffs.

“As a matter of principle, we will talk about everything with a friendly country that respects WTO rules,” French President Emmanuel Macron said immediately after the U.S. tariffs were enacted. “But, by the same principle, we won’t talk about anything while there’s a gun pointed at our head.”

The countries that have filed preliminary complaints with the WTO are seeking to pressure the Trump administration to withdraw the metal duties by specifically targeting U.S. goods that are produced by voters in states that sent Trump to the White House.

Harley-Davidson Inc. and bourbon are both on the list of goods specified by the EU, pressuring Republican speaker of the House of Representatives Paul Ryan, who hails from the Wisconsin home of the motorcycle maker, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, from Kentucky, where the whiskey is made.

The EU’s exemption from the metals tariff expires on June 1 and the EU isn’t sanguine on receiving another extension.

“I don’t think the exemptions will be prolonged,” European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said on Tuesday. “We have to prepare for different scenarios.” 

To contact the reporter on this story: Bryce Baschuk in Geneva at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alan Crawford at [email protected]

Richard Bravo, Nikos Chrysoloras

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