Steve Johnson, Iowa State University farm and ag business management specialist, said he is bullish on agriculture for 2020. He thinks 2020 could be a good year if the right things happened.

Johnson was the keynote speakers at several recent GrowingOn meetings in South Dakota, co-sponsored by the South Dakota Corn Growers Association and Farm Credit Services of America.

He said four potential bullish factors for 2020 are:

1. Reinstatement of the Renewable Fuel Standard. Johnson said it would create new demand for corn to produce 15 million more gallons of ethanol. He’s hopeful the Trump administration will reinstate the RFS before the election, arguing it would help the president win votes in farm states.

2. A Market Facilitation Program payment of $30-$50 per planted acre. Tariffs may still be place, but Johnson said the Trump administration would make another MFP payment. Your check, Johnson predicted, will be in your mailbox before election day. Why? See No. 1.

3. Supply shocks due to weather. There’s a chance Brazil could be dry or other production areas could be extremely wet. Ag is due for a supply shock, he said.

4. Trade agreements signed. If the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and China Phase 1 trade agreements were signed, U.S. exports of red meats, ethanol, distillers and grains and soybeans would soar, Johnson said.

If some or all of these four things happened, 2020 “could be a pretty good year,” Johnson said.

In the meantime

But don’t bet the farm on a 180-degree turnaround in the supply-demand picture.

Johnson spent most of his two hours at the GrowingOn seminar in Sioux Falls talking about marketing and risk management. He expects a large percentage of 2019’s 12 million prevent plant acres to be put back into corn and soybean production in 2020.

If all the acres are planted and can be harvested and the yields come in on the trend line, a large amount of grain would be added to the overall supply, Johnson said. Unfortunately, it would come at a time when some of the demand for corn for ethanol and soybeans for export to China has been destroyed.

According to Johnson, keys for success in 2020 — no matter what happens — include:

“Marketing will be more important than it ever has been,” Johnson said.