We are only two months into the new year and the markets are--what’s the word?---BAD---. The slide in corn and soybean prices actually started in the last half of November. December and January markets were bad enough but in the first half of February, the slide in prices accelerated. Preliminary numbers for 2024 from the USDA February Outlook Conference were not helpful.

There is a lot of unpriced bushels that remains in storage since harvest of last year. In addition, not many producers have acted to price 2024 new crop. Trouble abounds, but when bearish news is overwhelming, I feel the need to find a hopeful spin. Here’s my best shot.

The best prices seen in 2024 happened in the first week of January. Several weeks ago, I found myself thinking about January highs in the corn and soybean markets. Market highs in the month of January are uncommon. How uncommon are they? Let’s look at the last twenty years of old and new crop prices for corn and soybeans and ask a simple question; How often was the highest price posted in the April-May-June period higher than the highest price posted in January?

Corn and Soybeans: April-June (AMJ) high cash price vs. January high cash price, 2004-2024

Data source: Iowa average cash prices from USDA and as reported by the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship.

Will old crop corn prices rally this spring? In 16 of the last 20 years, the highest cash price for corn in the AMJ period exceeded the January high. For soybeans, it was 14 of the past 20 years. In corn, two exceptional years stand out, including 2020 when COVID struck, and 2013, when January prices were the highest prices ever recorded in January. The “highest price ever” tag also applies to soybeans a year ago.

Now for a look at new crop futures prices. Will December new crop corn futures and November new crop soybean futures rally this spring?

Corn and Soybeans: April-June (AMJ) high in new crop futures prices vs. January high in new crop futures prices, 2004-2024

Data source: CBOT closing prices for December corn and November soybean futures.

In 17 of the last 20 years, the highest December (new crop) corn futures price in the AMJ period exceeded the January high. Soybeans are modestly disappointing, as only 13 years did the highest November soybeans futures price in the AMJ period exceeded the January high. Once again, the effect of COVID in 2020 stands out.

We did not invent the bear market in 2024. There were plenty of other bear markets over the past two decades and in most years, we found a way to take out the January highs during the spring months. Can I guarantee that $4.50 cash corn or $5. Dec’24 corn futures will return in the spring. I cannot guarantee anything. But this simple analysis offers a ray of hope.