Cotton producers in the U.S. plan on planting almost 12 million acres of cotton this coming season. That is up 7.3% from the previous year, according to the National Cotton Council’s Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.

The survey, which was conducted December 14, 2021 through January 17, 2022, shows that growers plan on putting in 11.9 million acres of Upland cotton, an increase of 7.1%. Extra-long staple cotton acres should increase 24.8% to 158,000 acres. The planting intentions were released on February 13 during the general session at the 2022 National Cotton Council Annual Meeting.

“Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed," said Dr. Jody Campiche, the NCC’s vice president, Economics & Policy Analysis. "Ultimately, weather and agronomic conditions are among the factors that play a significant role in determining crop size.”

Using the 10-year average abandonment rate for each state, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 9.8 million acres for 2022 with a U.S. abandonment rate of 18.9%. Using the five-year average state-level yield per harvested acre generates a cotton crop of 17.3 million bales, with 16.8 million upland bales and 438,000 ELS bales, according to the National Cotton Council.

“History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions," Campiche said. "Relative to the average futures prices during the first quarter of 2021, prices of all commodities are trading significantly higher. However, input costs are also much higher than this time last year.”

Southeast

In the Southeast respondents indicated a 3.7% increase in cotton acreage to 2.4 million acres. In Alabama, survey responses indicate a 5.0% increase in cotton acreage. Georgia growers expect to plant 1.3% more cotton, while the survey indicates an 8.0% increase in North Carolina’s cotton area. South Carolina growers expect to plant 10.0% more cotton, with Virginia growers expanding their cotton acreage by 4.7%. According to the survey responses, the expected increase in cotton acres is due to a decline in corn acres and peanut acres to a lesser extent. With a 4.0% decline, Florida is the only state in the region showing a decrease in cotton acres, with those producers shifting to soybeans.

Mid-South

Mid-South growers intend to plant 1.9 million acres, an increase of 14.6% from the previous year. Across the region, all states intend to increase cotton acreage. In Arkansas, respondents indicated a 15.7% increase in cotton acreage; Louisiana growers expect to plant 51.2% more cotton; in Mississippi, respondents indicated 6.5% more cotton acreage; Missouri growers expect to increase cotton acres by 5.9%; and Tennessee’s respondents indicated a 21.1% increase in cotton. In all states, survey responses suggest that cotton is increasing acres at the expense of corn.

Southwest

Southwest growers intend to increase cotton acreage by 7.0% to 7.4 million acres. Each of the three states plan to increase cotton acres with Kansas up 15.2%, Oklahoma increasing by 5.6%, and Texas calling for a 6.9% increase. Responses indicate a shift from sorghum to cotton, with Texas producers also planting less wheat.

West

With intentions of 156,000 acres, producers in the West expect to plant 14.1% less acres of upland cotton. Upland acreage is expected to decrease in Arizona and California by 22.7% and 7.7%, respectively. New Mexico growers expect to increase upland acreage by 10.0% in 2022. Water constraints continue to affect planting decisions in Arizona and California.

ELS acreage is expected to increase by 24.8% in 2022 to 158,000 acres, likely driven by the all-time highs being seen in ELS cotton prices. Respondents indicated an increase of 30.4% in California, 5.9% in Arizona, 11.0% in New Mexico, and 16.3% in Texas.

NCC delegates were reminded the expectations are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at survey time with actual plantings influenced by changing market conditions and weather. Producers will continue to monitor changes in commodity prices and input costs before finalizing their 2022 acreage decisions. Although cotton prices are higher than in recent years, higher input prices and supply chain disruptions have resulted in significant increases in production costs for 2022. As a result, many producers continue to face difficult economic conditions heading into 2022.

The NCC questionnaire, mailed in mid-December 2021 to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked producers for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2021 and the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through mid-January.

 
Prospective 2022 U.S. Cotton Area