“If only December 2024 would get back to $5 again, I’d pull the trigger and make some new crop sales.” This is a sentiment I’ve heard from many farmers.

Corn carryout hangover

After the January USDA report, corn prices have fallen lower. The USDA put a nail in the price coffin with 2.1 billion bushel carryout plaguing corn prices.

Looking forward, even with a slight reduction in planted acres in 2024, 2 billion bushels for corn carryout will likely linger throughout the remainder of 2024, barring a dramatic weather issue this summer in the United States.

Watch our competitor’s weather

The good news is that most of that negative price sentiment has likely been priced in for the short term in the aftermath of the January USDA report. And, since we are in the futures market, trade is already beginning to look ahead to the weather in South America and their corn production.

As I discussed in last week’s blog, there is no room for error for corn production in Brazil in the coming weeks and months.

Therefore:

You know how it goes, a weather scare in South America might push the corn market higher, but then any glimmer of actual rain on the radar can sink prices quickly.

Set a price target

Looking at a December 2024 corn chart, it does seem realistic from both a technical and fundamental perspective that prices can go back up to the $5 area, before hitting major overhead resistance.

Consider calling your local grain elevator or ethanol plant to get an order working in conjunction with that price target in mind.

History has shown us that rallies can occur quickly, and end abruptly, with prices only hitting a target upside price for just minutes of one trading day. Those who have their orders placed ahead of time are implementing strategic marketing.

Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X (previously Twitter): @naomiblohm, and at [email protected].

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