Sufficient yield, slow export demand and a projected 2 billion bushel carryout for the 2023-24 crop year is weighing on corn prices. Will there ever be a price rebound? When will the bleeding stop?

What’s happened

December 2023 corn futures prices have been sliding lower since late July, with prices now losing $1 in just a matter of weeks. The notion that nationwide corn yield will be ample, with the USDA pegging yield at 175.1 bu. per acre on the most recent WASDE report is the largest anchor on prices. Not helping is a slow U.S. corn export pace compared to years past, with the addition of competition from South America.

With this $1 price drop, many producers are asking if there will be any price rebound in the coming weeks. Good news. From a historical perspective, the answer is likely yes.

From marketing perspective

Seasonally, December corn futures tend to find a price low sometime in late August or early September.

Keep in mind, past performance is not indicative of future results. Yet, looking back at the past decade, 10 out of 10 years, December corn futures have found a “harvest low” and then subsequent price rally. The average rally over the past decade has been 64 cents!

A few notes about this chart I created. For the purpose of this article I used the dates of August 1 through November 15, annually, to quantify the “harvest low” and potential rally time frame. (While the December corn futures contract does indeed trade past November 15, I chose to exclude price values past November 15, as the contract gets near the “first notice day” time frame for contract expiration.)

Also note that in some of the years in the past decade, December corn futures prices did not trade straight up after the “harvest low,” but there were plenty of price zigs and zags along the way.

Prepare yourself

While there is currently no sign of a technical bottoming signal for corn futures, and we are still a couple weeks away from month end, it is important to be aware and watch for a potential “harvest low.” Any type of price rally into year-end would be welcome for many producers as they begin to harvest corn in the field. Be ready to act on it.

Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on Twitter: @naomiblohm, and at [email protected].

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