Greetings from Houston, Texas and the Commodity Classic! The last few days have been quite a shock to me weather-wise. On Monday, I was putting out hay in a t-shirt. Early Tuesday morning, I drove to the airport in the middle of a blizzard. When I got to Houston at noon, it was 80 degrees.

It reminded me of marketing grain over the last few years. It has been a wild ride full of highs and lows.

2 big questions

Since the last trading day in 2023, March corn has dropped from $4.71 to a low of $3.94 ½ on Monday, Feb. 26. As I type, March 2024 corn is at first notice day and is currently at $4.12 ½.

There has been talk in the market over the last few weeks about the March basis contracts that would need to get priced or rolled over the last week. The question has been: Will this week mark a winter/spring low in the corn market as the “hedge pressure” from farmer selling weighs on the market?

The other major discussion point over the last few weeks has been the “fund” position. According to the recent Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, managed money funds were reported being short corn to the tune of roughly 340,000 contracts. This represents about 1.7 billion bushels of corn.

Has corn hit the bottom?

The two ideas listed above (combined with drought concerns creeping into South and North America and talk of China stepping in and buying some corn in the world) have a lot of folks wondering if we have found a bottom and if we will see a significant rally in the coming months.

Related:Are farmers truly undersold on 2023 corn?

We will not know the answer to that question until it is too late. So, the key is to control what you can control. And what you can control is how you react.

It is a common practice for the customers that I work with to pick a price where they would like to sell grain, watch it get to those levels, only to move the goal posts and shoot for a higher price. To avoid those errors in marketing, we encourage you to get your orders working – either with your cash buyer, or your broker to place hedges. We also encourage you to buy put options, or at the very least, pick a price where you will buy the options.

Take action

I could throw a ton of data and numbers at you on how high the market could go during a rally based on percentage moves during previous analog years. But at the end of the day, it is more important for the producer to focus on their decision-making during the coming months.

I know the 1.7 billion bushels that the funds are short makes people think there will be a significant rally. One specific date to pay attention to is Thursday, March 28. That day we will get the quarterly grain stocks as well as the March planting intentions report. This will tell us how much grain farmers are holding and how many acres do they intend to plant. It will also likely set the direction for the remainder of the spring.

Related:Are you still storing corn?

Just like I do not expect the weather roller coaster to end soon, I do not imagine the market will temper either. Uncertainty will remain. Use rallies to get caught up on 2023 crop sales as well as new crop sales. Finally, remember that no decision is still a decision, and oftentimes it is a poor one!

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