As expected, USDA lowered its estimate for both corn and soybean yield, as well as production, in its November Crop Production report. Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, the government’s latest monthly forecast reflects the wet fall and weather-related problems caused by harvest delays in Iowa and other areas.
USDA now estimates U.S. corn production for 2018 at 14.62 billion bushels, down 1% from 14.77 billion bushels in October. If this estimate holds true, it would be the second-largest U.S. crop on record after 15.14 billion bushels produced in 2016. Soybean production for the U.S. in 2018 is now forecast at a record 4.60 billion bushels, down 1.9% from 4.69 billion bushels in October, but up 4.3% from 4.41 billion bushels produced a year ago.
Thus, the U.S. in 2018 is harvesting it’s second-largest corn crop on record and a record soybean crop. Iowa is harvesting its third-largest corn crop and a record soybean crop.
Iowa 2018 corn crop estimate lowered
Released Nov. 8, the November report estimates Iowa’s 2018 corn crop at 2.52 billion bushels, down slightly from October’s estimate of 2.601 billion bushels. Iowa harvested 2.605 billion bushels in 2017. Iowa’s record corn crop was produced in 2016 at 2.74 billion bushels. So, 2.52 billion bushels in 2018 would be Iowa’s third largest corn crop.
Iowa’s 2018 corn yield is expected to average 198 bushels per acre, down 6 bushels from the October forecast and down 4 bushels per acre from last year’s Iowa corn yield average. Iowa’s record high statewide average for corn is 203 bushels per acre, set in 2016.
Corn planted acreage this year is estimated at 13.2 million acres. An estimated 12.8 million of the acres planted are being harvested for grain in Iowa this fall.
Iowa soybean production also lower
Iowa soybean production is forecast at 577 million bushels for 2018. If realized, this will be the highest production on record for Iowa with 9.94 million bushels more than the previous record of 567 million bushels set in 2017.
The yield is forecast at 58 bushels per acre, down 3 bushels per acre from the October forecast, but 1 bushel per acre higher than 2017. Soybean planted acreage this year is estimated at 10.0 million acres with 9.94 million acres to be harvested.
The forecasts in this latest USDA report are based on Nov. 1 conditions and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The next USDA corn and soybean production estimates will be published in the Crop Production — Annual Summary report to be released in January. (Soybean yield and production for 2017 were revised by USDA in October. Updated 2017 district and county estimates will be available in February.)
U.S. corn, soybean production in 2018
USDA’s November estimate for U.S. corn production in 2018 is 14.62 billion bushels, down 1% from the October forecast but up less than 1% from last year. Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, yield is expected to average 178.9 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from the October forecast but up 2.3 bushels from 2017. If realized, this will be the highest yield and second highest U.S. production on record. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, unchanged from the previous estimate but down 1% from 2017.
Soybean production nationally is forecast at a record 4.60 billion bushels, down 2% from the October forecast but up 4% from last year. Based on Nov. 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 52.1 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from last month but up 2.8 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 88.3 million acres, down slightly from last month.
Price forecast rises slightly on lower yield
USDA’s World Ag Supply & Demand Estimate Report released Nov. 8 gives an update on the government’s price forecasts for corn and soybeans. For corn, with U.S. production now projected to reach 14.62 billion bushels in 2018, if realized, that would make it the second largest U.S. corn crop ever, notes WASDE. That’s 152 million bushels lower than the October crop size estimate, due to reduced yield.
With lower supply, USDA is forecasting lower corn use. However, USDA has raised its corn price forecast by 10 cents to a midpoint of $3.60 per bushel as supply fell more than use in the November WASDE projections. Click here to read the full report.