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Will the USDA estimate fewer planted soybean acres?Will the USDA estimate fewer planted soybean acres?

Bears point to weather, but the bulls could build a story.

Kevin Van Trump

April 4, 2019

1 Min Read
soybean acreage
Rasica/Getty Images

Soybean bears are pointing to weather headwinds as conditions in South America have improved helping to aid harvest and bump production estimates slightly higher than what many inside the trade had been previously forecasting. Here at home, weather is also weighing on prices, as many traders are thinking overly wet conditions and limited opportunity for field work could ultimately bring about more soybean acres. 

Longer-term however, I think there could be a bullish story brewing. Unfortunately, I think it's going to take time to play out. We need to see South America chew thru their new-crop supply, ink a trade deal with the world’s No. 1 buyer of soybeans, stop the bleeding from African Swine Fever in China, and get some weather-related headlines here in the U.S. this growing season. I never said it was going to be easy to build a bullish story, but when we are sitting on record supply up near 1.0 billion bushels, what should we expect? 

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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