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U.S. weather continues to be debated among corn traders

Flooding is impacting both bear and bull positions.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

March 19, 2019

1 Min Read
rural flooding
Kat72/Getty Images

Bulls are pointing to flooding and extremely wet conditions in many important production areas.

Bears are saying growth in U.S. demand remains in question as flooding along the rivers continues to delay exports, livestock loses could somewhat limit feed demand and ethanol margins remain tight. Bears also believe there's still plenty of time to get the U.S. crop in the ground and no need to add excessive "risk-premium" this early in the game.

The USDA will deliver its acreage estimate late next week in the March 29th Prospective Plantings report. As I've been saying for several weeks, I just don't see the corn acres going in the ground that most sources have thrown out in their early forecasting. I could, however, see significantly more preventive plant acres. Bears are also pointing to what appears will be significantly more corn being harvested in South America, which could ultimately create headwinds for U.S. exporters.

As a producer, I'm staying extremely patient, believing there will be better pricing opportunities in the weeks ahead. Follow my report to receive my next cash sale.

About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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