September 7, 2017
As the 2017 crop season winds down, the No. 1 question on most minds is, “What will yields be this year?”
The August USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report tallied up estimated corn yields at 169.5 bpa and soybean yields at 49.4 bpa. Ahead of the next WASDE update, coming Sept. 12, a group of 32 market analysts provided their own crop estimates. The result – slightly lower yields, on average.
For corn, analysts now anticipate an average yield of 167.9 bpa, for a total production of 14.003 billion bushels in 2017. USDA’s August estimates were for 169.5 bpa and 14.153 billion bushels. Individual analyst estimates ranged from 165.5 bpa to 171.2 bpa.
For soybeans, analysts now anticipate an average yield of 48.7 bpa for a total production of 4.322 billion bushels in 2017. That is also below USDA’s August estimates of 49.4 bpa and 4.381 billion bushels. Individual analyst estimates ranged from 47.1 bpa to 50 bpa.
Farm Futures, which is among the analysts surveyed, made the following estimates.
Corn yield: 167.8 bpa
Corn production: 13.978 billion bushels
Soybean yield: 49.1 bpa
Soybean production: 4.354 billion bushels
Analysts also predicted lower U.S. inventories for the 2017/18 crop compared to August 2017 USDA estimates. USDA had predicted 2.273 billion bushels of corn, 475 million bushels of soybeans and 933 million bushels of wheat in reserves. Analysts, however, estimate current reserves of 2.125 billion bushels of corn, 439 million bushels of soybeans and 914 million bushels of wheat. World reserve estimates also came in slightly lower than August 2017 USDA numbers.
A group of 15 analysts also provided updated estimates of Argentina and Brazil corn and soybean production, which will also be updated in the Sept. 12 WASDE report. Average trade estimates for corn production were 1.61 billion bushels for the Argentine crop and 3.89 billion bushels for the Brazilian crop. For soybeans, average trade estimates were 2.12 billion bushels for the Argentine crop and 4.19 billion bushels for the Brazilian crop.
Visit www.farmfutures.com on Sept. 12 for full coverage of the next WASDE report.
About the Author(s)
Senior editor, Farm Futures
Senior Editor Ben Potter brings more than 14 years of professional agricultural communications and journalism experience to Farm Futures. He began working in the industry in the highly specific world of southern row crop production. Since that time, he has expanded his knowledge to cover a broad range of topics relevant to agriculture, including agronomy, machinery, technology, business, marketing, politics and weather. He has won several writing awards from the American Agricultural Editors Association, most recently on two features about drones and farmers who operate distilleries as a side business. Ben is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism.
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