Farm Progress

Is record large corn demand enough to push prices higher?

Mexico and South Korea corn purchases could help corn prices, but they could go the opposite way depending on the USDA report due out next week.

Kevin Van Trump

November 3, 2017

1 Min Read

Corn bulls are happy to see Mexico continuing to step up as large purchasers of U.S. supply.

Yesterday's buy of over 53 million bushels is thought to be one of the top-10 largest single day purchases of U.S. corn in our nation's history. Lets' also keep in mind, South Korean buyers have been a bit more active as of late in the global marketplace.

Unfortunately, bears continue to point to the fact the U.S. crop might still be getting larger, meaning perhaps ending stocks might still be getting a bit more burdensome. Informa updated their yield estimate yesterday and bumped their forecast higher by +2.9 bushels per acre to 173.4 bpa, with total U.S. production just north of 14.4 billion bushels per acre vs. the USDA at 171.8 bushels per acre and total production at 14.28 billion bushels.

From a technical standpoint, it still feels like there's fairly significant nearby chart resistance up int he $3.60 to $3.65 range. A bit longer-term it seems the $3.75 to $3.90 area will be extremely difficult to overcome without some type of widespread production hiccup in South America. Looking for next Thursday's USDA report to dictate the next small move.

I'm hoping the USDA doesn't raise their yield estimate as much as some are talking about. 

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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