USDA’s new set of grain export sales data, out Thursday morning and covering the week through November 30, showed corn, soybean and wheat volume all trending moderately lower week-over-week. Versus analyst expectations, corn and soybeans still moved to the higher end of trade guesses, while wheat totals failed to impress.

Corn export sales reached 51.6 million bushels last week, which slumped 48% below the prior week’s tally but stayed 8% above the prior four-week average. That was toward the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 28.5 million and 60.9 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still moderately ahead of last year’s pace so far, with 342.8 million bushels.

Corn export shipments climbed to a marketing-year high of 42.8 million bushels, which was also 65% better than the prior four-week average. Mexico, China, Colombia, Japan and Taiwan were the top five destinations.

“Corn shipping volumes posted a good showing this week,” according to Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland. “A large crop this summer is helping to fuel export opportunities, with marketing-year-to-date shipping volumes already 51% ahead of year ago paces. New export orders to China nearly doubled from last week to 10.8 million bushels. Fresh sales to Japan for delivery later in the 2023/24 marketing year also helped keep corn prices trading in the green this morning.”

Total 2023/24 corn export commitments (all past and future export sales) have risen to 1.014 billion bushels so far in the 2023/24 marketing year, Holland adds.

“That represents a 52% increase from year ago export commitments, meaning that improving export prospects are helping to keep prices stable for the U.S. corn market for now,” she says. “Again, the larger 2023 U.S. corn crop is making this possible.”

Sorghum export sales eased 12% below the prior four-week average, with 4.7 million bushels. That grain is largely bound for China, with Japan accounting for the modest remainder. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are still substantially higher than last year’s pace so far, with 40.7 million bushels.

Soybean export sales reached 55.8 million bushels last week. That was toward the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 36.7 million and 67.1 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still trending moderately below last year’s pace so far, with 673.2 million bushels.

Soybean export shipments were down 26% from the prior four-week average but still came in strong at 49.1 million bushels. China, Spain, the Netherlands, Mexico and Germany were the top five destinations.

“Overnight headlines from China pointed to slightly lower than expected soybean import volumes in November 2023 even though Chinese soybean imports are on pace to set a new high in 2023/24,” Holland says. “Producer profit margins for hog production as well as consumer demand for pork are shrinking considerably in China right now, driving more hogs to slaughter and discouraging herd expansion.”

Holland also points out that U.S. soybean exports to China tumbled by over half of last week’s volumes to 16.3 million bushel – the smallest weekly soybean volume shipped to China since late September 2023 and the smallest shipping volume to China for this time of year since the 2018/19 trade war. Soybean prices traded up this morning on South American crop concerns for now, but if USDA’s WASDE reports don’t reflect similar crop downgrades for Brazil in tomorrow’s WASDE report, these slowing Chinese buying paces of U.S. soybeans could result in bearish price action for the soybean complex tomorrow.

Wheat export sales were mostly lackluster after only reaching 12.7 million bushels last week. That was down 43% from last week’s tally but still 8% above the prior four-week average. Analysts were generally expecting a bigger haul after offering trade guesses that ranged between 9.2 million and 33.1 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are moderately below last year’s pace so far, with 297.7 million bushels.

Wheat export shipments faded 27% below the prior four-week average, with 7.3 million bushels. The Philippines, Japan, Mexico, Jamaica and Egypt were the top five destinations.

“This time of year is typically a slow time for U.S. wheat shipments, and today’s export data reflected that dynamic as weekly volumes dipped,” Holland says. “But wheat markets are a little less focused on past volumes and trading more eagerly on future ones. The past week’s Chinese wheat orders have now totaled 37.1 million bushels and will be reflected in sales data in next week’s report.”

Click here for more highlights from the latest UDSA export sales report.