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Export Report: Corn jumps well above analyst expectations

Soybeans post disappointing volume; wheat finds rangebound results.

Ben Potter

February 8, 2024

2 Min Read
Filling export ship with grain
Getty Images/Elena Larina

USDA’s latest set of grain export sales data, out Thursday morning and covering the week through February 1, showed a wide variance in volume among the top ag commodities. Corn sales were stable week-over-week but jumped noticeably above analyst expectations. In contrast, soybean sales slumped below the entire set of trade guesses. Wheat sales were largely lackluster but managed rangebound results.

Corn export sales inched 1% higher week-over-week and moved 25% above the prior four-week average, with 48.0 million bushels. That was well above the entire range of trade guesses, which came in between 10.8 million and 23.6 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are still trending moderately above last year’s pace so far, with 671.4 million bushels.

Corn export shipments faded 19% below the prior four-week average, with 30.8 million bushels. Mexico, Colombia, Japan, Guatemala and South Korea were the top five destinations.

Sorghum exports tracked 40% lower than the prior four-week average, with 2.4 million bushels. Increases to China more than offset reductions to unknown destinations. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are substantially above last year’s pace after reaching 107.2 million bushels.

Soybean exports only reached 12.9 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. Old crop sales were 24% below the prior four-week average. Total sales were below the entire range of analyst estimates, which came in between 14.7 million and 38.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still moderately lower than last year’s pace so far, with 1.064 billion bushels.

Soybean export shipments jumped 44% above the prior four-week average, with a robust volume of 60.8 million bushels. China, the Netherlands, Mexico, Bangladesh and Turkey were the top five destinations.

Wheat exports reached 14.2 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. That was on the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 10.1 million and 22.0 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are modestly below last year’s pace, with 407.6 million bushels.

Wheat export shipments were up 18% from a week ago but still 11% below the prior four-week average, with 11.6 million bushels. Indonesia, Canada, Nigeria, Venezuela and the Philippines were the top five destinations.

Click here for more highlights from the latest UDSA export sales report.

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Exports

About the Author(s)

Ben Potter

Senior editor, Farm Futures

Senior Editor Ben Potter brings two decades of professional agricultural communications and journalism experience to Farm Futures. He began working in the industry in the highly specific world of southern row crop production. Since that time, he has expanded his knowledge to cover a broad range of topics relevant to agriculture, including agronomy, machinery, technology, business, marketing, politics and weather. He has won several writing awards from the American Agricultural Editors Association, most recently on two features about drones and farmers who operate distilleries as a side business. Ben is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism.

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