Farm Progress

Feedback From The Field - Nov. 12, 2018

Lower USDA yields no surprise to growers.

Bryce Knorr 1

November 12, 2018

4 Min Read
skhoward/iStock/GettyImagesPlus

USDA’s move last week to cut its estimate of corn and soybean production wasn’t much of a surprise to most traders. And it certainly didn’t catch farmers struggling through a challenging growing season off-guard, either.

While the agency’s estimates for both crops, if they hold, would be records, corn output fell from 180.7 bushels per acre in October to 178.9. The nationwide soybean yield dropped a full bushel per acre to 52.1 bpa.

Average weekly yields reported by farmers to Feedback From the Field peak during the first week of October, then trended lower. If these results are any indication, corn yields could continue to decline when USDA puts out its final monthly production estimates Jan. 11. The average corn yield reported by farmers to Feedback for October and November, when most of the crop was harvested, was 176.6 bpa.

Farmers put average October/November soybean yields at 52.2 bushels per acre, suggesting little change from USDA in January. The wild card for both crops could be harvested acreage, after a harvest season that’s seen heavy rains followed by snow in some areas. Growers hopes for bin-busting yields were reined in from one end of the Corn Belt to the other.

“Too dry in the summer and extremely wet fall,” said a producer in central Wisconsin with 155-bushel corn and 45-bushel soybeans.

A farmer from central Ohio with corn only half-harvested looked at a forecast Friday that was full of rain and snow. “After 3 inches of rain a week ago,” was the post.

Even growers with decent yields complained about the slog. “Wet weather slowing harvest and yield losses in the field due to harvest delays,” was the comment from a north central Iowa farmer with 210-bhsel corn and 52-bushel soybeans.

What’s happening out your way? Click this Feedback From The Field link to provide your final updates for the season.

Follow along with the season here:

Feedback From The Field - Oct. 29, 2018 - First half of harvest leaves farmers unimpressed.

Feedback From The Field - Oct. 20, 2018 - Farmers start returning to fields, don’t like what they see.

Feedback From The Field - Oct. 15, 2018 - Farmers downgrade ratings, yields after heavy rains.

Feedback From The Field - Oct. 11, 2018 - Heavy rains increase worries about damage to crops.

Feedback From The Field - Oct. 8, 2018 - Ratings ease a little but yields hold up strong despite variations.

Feedback From The Field - Oct. 1, 2018 - Producers see improved conditions as more enter fields.

Feedback From the Field - Sept. 24, 2018 - Growers not as optimistic as USDA

Feedback From The Field - Sept. 17, 2018 - Growers not as optimistic as USDA, but still see better yields.

Feedback From The Field - Sept. 4, 2018 - Conditions improve last week as soybeans impress.

Feedback From The Field - Aug. 27, 2018 - Crops improved last week but some fields still suffer.

Feedback From The Field - Aug. 20, 2018 - Boom or bust yields look possible ahead of harvest.

Feedback From The Field - Aug. 9, 2018 - Farmers see good corn and soybean crops so far.

Feedback From The Field - Aug. 6, 2018 - Corn fades, beans come on.

Feedback From The Field - July 25, 2018 - Crops grow, so do worries.

Feedback From The Field - July 16, 2018 - Growers sound more optimistic about crops.

Feedback From The Field - July 12, 2018 - Yield potential ranges from boom to bust.

Feedback From The Field - July 9, 2018 - Growers voice concerns about conditions.

Feedback From The Field - July 2, 2018 - Crops hang on despite hot week.

Feedback From the Field - June 25, 2018 - Heavy rains help some fields, hurt others growers say.

Feedback From the Field - June 18, 2018 - Corn ratings slip after a hot week with hit-or-miss rains.

Feedback From the Field - June 11, 2018 - Corn improves but weekend rains could be crucial.

Feedback From the Field - June 4, 2018 - Crop conditions hold steady, but not as strong as USDA’s ratings.

Feedback From the Field - May 21, 2018 - Will corn planting progress meet the market’s models?

Feedback From the Field - May 14, 2018 - Planting progress hit or miss in the second week of May.

Feedback From the Field - May 7, 2018 - Growers make rapid planting progress outside the far north.

Feedback From the Field - May 2, 2018 - Some growers welcome this week’s rains.

Feedback From The Field - April 30, 2018 - More growers get into the field over the weekend.

Feedback From The Field - April 23, 2018 - April ending with cold, wet conditions stalling planting.

Feedback From The Field - April 19, 2018 - Rain, snow, fires and mud – this spring has it all.

Feedback From The Field - April 18, 2018 - Welcome to springtime in the Midwest.

Feedback From The Field - April 16, 2018 - Interactive tool helps growers share conditions.

About the Author(s)

Bryce Knorr 1

Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

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