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Export report confirms some of market's hopes

Old crop corn and new crop soybean bookings are strong.

Bryce Knorr 1, Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

June 3, 2016

3 Min Read

A solid week of export sales all around supported futures into the morning break on Friday, going at least part of the way towards confirming hopes for a solid summer of bookings

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Old crop corn purchases led the way, with 51.9 million bushels of new business added in the latest week. Destinations were not disclosed yet for a third of that total, with Japan the leading known customer. Taiwan and Mexico also took multiple cargoes as total commitments neared 1.7 billion bushels, just shy of USDA’s forecast for the entire 2015 crop. Unshipped sales of 565 million are the highest since at least 1987, suggesting shippers will be busy this summer. That strong book is one reason basis levels in the export pipeline were stronger last week. For more, including interactive maps, see the Weekly Basis Review.

New crop corn sales were a little thin at 5.1 million bushels, but the total so far of 144 million is the best in three years. USDA increased its forecast for both old and new crop sales in May following drought damage to Brazil’s second crop corn.

Flood losses in Argentina also appear to be turning at least a little late season soybean business back to the U.S. as well. USDA reported 11.4 million bushels of old crop sales, including a couple loads by Chinese buyers, who have been sitting on their hands lately. Total soybean sales and shipments to date have topped USDA’s forecast for the entire 2015 crop marketing year, with a full quarter left to go.

New crop sales hit their best level since harvest, after a very slow start for the 2016 marketing year. Net 2016 bookings of 27.1 million bushels were mostly declared for unknown destinations, and the year-to-date total is still at the lowest since before the 2010 marketing year.

New crop soybean meal sales were also strong at 246,900 MT, the best of the marketing year so far. Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean products and soaring meal prices were a prime mover of the big rally in soybeans.

New crop sorghum sales remain a goose egg, but old crop deals continue to get done thanks to very low prices. USDA reported old crop sales of 8.3 million bushels, the best since January. China was the biggest buyer as end users there continue to use sorghum to circumvent government restrictions on corn imports in the face of massive inventories.

Last week was the final full week of the 2015 crop marketing year for wheat, and the old crop book was typically small at 3.9 million bushels. New crop sales advanced to 14.1 million, so the total was well above trade guesses. Total wheat commitments are just shy of USDA’s forecast, the smallest since 1971, so there’s a chance no reduction may be made in next week’s supply and demand report.

USDA exports- May 26, 2016 – Corn, soybean sales slip; corn beats forecasts

USDA exports - May 19, 2016 - Corn, soybeans sales rise, beat forecasts

Export report confirms some of market’s hopes

About the Author(s)

Bryce Knorr 1

Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

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