As farm families consider buying or selling farmland in 2024, Kansas State University released the “Kansas Agricultural Land Values and Trends 2023” publication.

This publication, a joint venture between the Kansas Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers and the K-State Agricultural Economics Department, offers valuable insights into past and future trends that could affect land prices.

According to the review, written by Allen Featherstone, K-State Department of Agricultural Economics head, 2023 saw falling commodity prices amid continuing drought. However, he writes, crop insurance revenue guarantees were high, and many farmers had already priced a portion of their crops before the prices fell.

He writes that 2024 may see more difficulties on the farm income front, with lower crop insurance price guarantees. For example, the reference price for wheat declined by 16% and is expected to decline by 18% for corn, 13% for soybeans in 2024. And if crop inputs stay priced high, farmers could expect a difficult income year in 2024.

Land values in 2024 may decrease in this scenario, or at the very least not increase at the levels land buyers and sellers saw in 2022 and 2023.

“Land values were reported to increase by 25.2% in 2022 and 16.3% in 2023, which are large increases based on historical changes where about 1 in 4 years see an increase of more than 10%,” Featherstone writes. “It is likely that land value increases in 2024 will be close to zero. Since 1950, land values have increased by an average of 5.4% annually.”

Of course, Featherstone writes, this all depends on if there is local demand for the land coming from alternative uses — such as hunting, oil and gas exploration, wind or solar development, and more.

Statewide, irrigated cropland in 2023 sold for an average of $4,856 per acre, a 24.9% increase from 2022. Dryland sold for an average in 2023 of $3,194 per acre, an increase of 8.6% from 2022. And pasture or hay ground sold for an average of $2,683 per acre in 2023, a 2% increase from 2022 average prices.

Regionally, dryland in north-central Kansas saw the largest increase in average prices from 2022 to 2023, a 27% increase to an average of $4,180 per acre. While northeast Kansas saw the highest average prices in dryland acres, $6,449 per acre.

Southwest Kansas saw the largest increase in average prices year over year for irrigated acres, at 28.4% rising to an average of $4,151 per acre. However, south-central Kansas saw the highest average price per acre, at $6,297.

Pasture and hay land in 2023 in east-central and southeast Kansas saw an increase in value of 8.6%. And while northeast Kansas had the highest average value of $4,233 per acre, the value dropped 6.5% from 2022.

Read the full publication online at agmanager.info.