Farm Progress

Has corn demand started to fizzle?

Exports fell this past week causing a surplus in the market.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

October 19, 2018

1 Min Read
Getty Images/csfotoimages

As I've eluded the past couple of weeks, we absolutely can't afford to see the strong demand story start to unravel. I personally don't see that being the case, but I'm also aware of the fact I might be viewing the field from my own perspective, which is with a bullish lens.

Earlier this week, we had a little down tick in ethanol production and a further build in surplus. Yesterday, we were hit with the weakest weekly export data of the new marketing year and well below market expectations. Not only was the sales number extremely weak, but we also had to digest a sizable cancellation from an "unknown" destination. Mexico, Japan, Columbia, Egypt and South Korea remained buyers of U.S. corn, but in small quantity.

Bulls argue it's only a temporary blip, as river barge freight to the Gulf during the heavy rains, pushed U.S. prices to higher levels compared to competition from Argentina and Ukraine. Remember, Ukraine's crop is now thought to be over 50% harvested. Let’s also keep in mind, here at home, we've seen about a +30 cent rally the past few weeks off the lows.

 

To receive more of my thoughts on the +30 cent rally, click HERE.

The opinions of the author are not necessarily those of Corn+Soybean Digest or Farm Progress.

About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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