Analysts were expecting USDA to downgrade its ratings for both corn and soybean quality after an abundance of hot, dry conditions across the central U.S. this past week. USDA obliged – and then some – after slashing ratings even more than analysts thought it would in its new crop progress report, out Tuesday afternoon and covering the week through June 18. Corn ratings tumbled six points lower, while soybean ratings took a five-point hit.

Corn quality ratings shifted from 61% of the crop rated in good-to-excellent a week ago down to 55% as of June 18. That was well below the average trade guess of 58%. Another 33% of the crop is rated fair (up two points from last week), with the remaining 12% rated poor or very poor (up four points from last week).

Physiologically, 96% of the crop is now emerged, up from 93% from a week ago and two points faster than 2022’s pace and the prior five-year average.

Soybean ratings were also sharply lower this week after moving from 59% in good-to-excellent condition through June 11 down to 54% through Sunday. Analysts were only anticipating a two-point drop, in contrast. Another 34% was rated fair (up two points from last week), with the remaining 12% rated poor or very poor (up three points from last week).

Physiologically, 92% of the crop is now emerged, up from 86% a week ago. That is significantly above 2022’s pace and the prior five-year average, which were both 81%.

Other regional crops continued to make planting progress last week, including:

Winter wheat quality ratings held steady, as expected, with 38% of the crop still in good-to-excellent condition. Another 33% is rated fair (up two points from last week), with the remaining 29% rated poor or very poor (down two points from last week).

Nearly all (94%) of the crop is now headed, up from 89% a week ago and slightly faster than the prior five-year average of 93%. Harvest has moved from 8% completion a week ago up to 15%, although nine of the top 18 states have not yet made measurable progress at this time.

Spring wheat quality ratings took a sharp turn lower. While analysts anticipated a two-point drop, USDA pushed ratings from 60% rated in good-to-excellent condition a week ago all the way down to 51% through June 18. Another 37% of the crop is rated fair (up four points from last week), with the remaining 12% rated poor or very poor (up five points from last week).

Physiologically, 98% of the crop is emerged, up from 90% last week and a bit faster than the prior five-year average of 95%. Ten percent of the crop is headed, mirroring the prior five-year average.

Click here to read more highlights from the latest UDSA crop progress report, including a state-by-state look at pasture and rangeland condition.