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Serving: Central

World cotton acres — increase

Cotton Bullish news: USDA weekly export sales were anticipated to be relatively low at 150,000 to 200,000 bales. The actual figure was larger at 270,000 bales.

Turkey bought 81,900 bales. China was the main buyer at 129,100 bales.

Export sales were up 35 percent, exceeding the four-week average. Trade estimates for cotton exports averaged 150,000 bales.

Net sales for new crop cotton were 62,800 bales. Sales for the year are 2 percent above the five-year average. Trend traders remain on the buy side by 50,000 contracts.

Bearish news: USDA cotton planting intentions data was neutral at 10.5 million acres. Texas and the Southeast both showed increases. Texas intends to plant another 600,000 acres of cotton this year. Export shipments were 289,100 bales. That is down 3 percent from the four-week average for upland cotton.

Soybeans Bearish news: Soybeans stocks numbers were on the upper end of trade estimates at 1.27 billion bushels. That hurt May and July contracts raising the odds that ending stocks will achieve 190 million bushels at harvest. World supply estimates are large and increasing and soy oil supplies are increasing substantially.

If soybean acres exceed 78 million, the production will exceed demand for U.S. beans. Soybean supplies have increased 10 percent this year to 1.25 billion bushels. Last year’s soybean production came in at 3.33 billion bushels.

Bullish news: USDA weekly export sales were greater than expected at 388,500 tons. Export sales were down from last week but up for the four-week average by 29 percent. Export shipments were up 11 percent from the four-week average at 1.03 million tons. Export shipments for the marketing year are 1.122 billion bushels. Yearly export sales are 8 percent ahead of the five-year average.

Soy oil stocks were 3.278 billion pounds at the end of February. That is tighter than the 3.294 billion reported in the crush report last week.

China bought 287,500 tons. China is still sourcing beans from the U.S., 66,500 tons for delivery this year and 221,000 tons for delivery nest year. Ending stock estimates for U.S. soybeans look tight despite increased production. Traders remain on the buy side of soybean markets by 110,000 contracts.

Corn Bearish news: Selling at the end of quarter liquidation and rising ending stocks estimates pressure prices. March numbers were higher than anticipated. Market analysis foresees ending stocks over 2 billion bushels unless exports or ethanol use increases. USDA reported corn ending stocks of 7.69 billion bushels as of March 1, up 11 percent from last year with 32 percent in farm storage.

The recovery in animal feed margins remains modest. Feed is the number one use of corn and animal herds, though increasing, are below average in size. Feed supply stocks are expected to be adequate during this season. Higher energy prices are having a limited effect despite increased ethanol demand.

Corn acres in the United States are increasing at the same time Argentina is bringing a bumper crop to the export market. The pace of harvest and exports from South America is growing. The Argentine dock workers strike is ending. Corn acres in the United States will increase by 3 million if farmers plant current intensions. Traders are on the sell side of corn by 43,000 contracts.

Bullish news: USDA weekly export sales were expected to be 800,000 tons. The actual figure was 826,500 tons. All but 400 tons were old crop to be shipped. Export sales were up 35 percent above the four-week average. Export shipments were 18 percent above the four-week average.

Canada is shopping for corn, 400 tons of U.S. origin. USDA forecasts this season’s exports at 1.9 billion bushels. Accumulated exports for the marketing year are at 991.67 million bushels.

Wheat Bearish news: Wheat stocks reported were close to estimates at 1.352 billion bushels. Total shipments as of March were 584.8 million bushels. There are only 14 more weeks to meet USDA projections of 825 million bushels. Traders remain on the sell side of the market by a margin of 82,000 contracts.

The world wheat supply balance sheet is reaching the third straight annual surplus. Export competition remains intense. USDA reported 1.33 billion bushels of wheat supplies for the United States.

Russia has 9.5 million tons of wheat in government programs. India’s government bought 772,000 tons of domestic wheat to support prices. Ukraine exported nearly 18 million tons of wheat last season.

Bullish news: USDA weekly export sales were stronger than pre-report estimates. Sales were 483,600 tons. Weekly shipments last week were a record high for this season, at 693,000 tons. Net export sales were up 43 percent above the four-week average. Shipments were a marketing year high of 693,000 tons, 61 percent above the four-week average. United States wheat plantings are projected to be down 9 percent in 2010.

Weather in Canada, Northern Europe and China is not favorable for wheat production. Farmers in the United States intend to plant less than 54 million acres. That is 5 million acres less than last year and 10 million below average. Winter wheat acres are down more than 5 million.

Rice Bearish news: Long grain rice acres are now anticipated to increase 12 percent. Total rice acres will be up nine percent. Asian markets are slow as are U.S. markets. Buyers have been on the sidelines. Pakistan prices are the lowest at $390 per ton, then Vietnam at $400 and Thailand at $510.

Bullish news: The United States Congress is expected to allow rice sales to Cuba in April. The nation of Chile lost 20 percent of its rice crop to a major earthquake. Rice mills in Chile were also damaged. This could increase imports of milled rice by Chile in the future.

Weekly export sales of 71,700 tons were stronger than anticipated. Venezuela was the largest buyer at 30,000 tons. Weather reports coming out of China, Europe and Canada are not grain production favorable. Traders are on the buy side of rice markets by over 17,000 contracts.

TAGS: Cotton
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