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Trade withdrawal creates uncertainty in market

Corn market also vulnerable as Russia backs out of trade deal.

Ron Smith, Editor

July 25, 2023

1 Min Read
Corn Harvest
Ukraine is projected to be the fourth largest exporter of corn this year, according to Kim Anderson, emeritus faculty, agricultural economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater.Brent Murphree

Wheat may be the big market factor following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, but Ukraine also exports corn.

“Ukraine is projected to be the fourth largest exporter of corn this year,” says Kim Anderson, emeritus faculty, agricultural economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater. “They are normally the third largest exporter of corn, usually 15% of the corn export market. They'll be at 10% this year.”

“I think wheat is still the big one,” says Mark Welch, professor and Extension economist--grain marketing, Texas A&M AgriLife, College Station. “But Ukraine is a relatively large producer of corn as well, 25 million metric tons of corn.”

That compares to 17 and a half million metric tons of wheat. “They are a bigger corn producer and they export a larger percentage of their corn crop. So it does matter in corn.”

But corn coming out of the Black Sea Region is not as big a market factor as wheat.

“The world capacity for corn in terms of the major exporters, once you get out of the U.S. and Brazil, is not  as big a factor as wheat. The other players export much smaller percentages,” Welch says.

“Brazil is now the number one exporter of corn,” Anderson says. But Ukraine’s reduced export potential could have an impact, especially with an increasing worldwide demand for protein.

That increased demand puts more pressure on feed grain markets, Anderson said.

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About the Author(s)

Ron Smith

Editor, Farm Progress

Ron Smith has spent more than 30 years covering Sunbelt agriculture. Ron began his career in agricultural journalism as an Experiment Station and Extension editor at Clemson University, where he earned a Masters Degree in English in 1975. He served as associate editor for Southeast Farm Press from 1978 through 1989. In 1990, Smith helped launch Southern Turf Management Magazine and served as editor. He also helped launch two other regional Turf and Landscape publications and launched and edited Florida Grove and Vegetable Management for the Farm Press Group. Within two years of launch, the turf magazines were well-respected, award-winning publications. Ron has received numerous awards for writing and photography in both agriculture and landscape journalism. He is past president of The Turf and Ornamental Communicators Association and was chosen as the first media representative to the University of Georgia College of Agriculture Advisory Board. He was named Communicator of the Year for the Metropolitan Atlanta Agricultural Communicators Association. Smith also worked in public relations, specializing in media relations for agricultural companies. Ron lives with his wife Pat in Denton, Texas. They have two grown children, Stacey and Nick, and two grandsons, Aaron and Hunter.

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