Soybean cash prices in the Midwest remain firm. Old crop soybean futures prices are trading near $15.00. Demand for U.S. soybeans overall has been strong this year, and remaining supplies in the United States are on the historically low side.

The recent Quarterly Stocks report supports the above information. The U.S. soybean Quarterly Stocks number was released as 1.685 billion bushels, under the average pre-report estimate, and a whopping 247 million bushels below last year at the same time.

Be aware that this large, unexpected cut to soybeans supplies will appear in more detail in the next monthly USDA WASDE report scheduled for Tuesday, April 11.

Comparing ending stocks

So far in 2023, soybean ending stocks have been snug, and trending lower as of the most recent March report. What will the April report show? Time will tell, but a number under 200 million bushels would be quite supportive to old crop soybean futures prices and cash prices for the short term.

New crop soybeans

Looking at new crop prices, if the old crop ending stocks get smaller, that will result in smaller new crop carry-in. This would put more emphasis on a perfect growing season for U.S. soybeans this spring and summer.

If you read my article last week you are aware of the historical information and charts I shared. A few important points to be aware of from that article include:

When looking at the low price of November soybean futures on the day of the Prospective Plantings report, to the summer high price, the average rally over the past fifteen years has been $1.73!

In all of the past 15 years, November soybean futures have rallied after the Prospective Plantings report. (Not necessarily straight up, or immediately, but it has rallied.)

And 13 out of the past 15 years, the summer high price exceeded the price high that the November soybean futures contract showed during the month of March. (Note that some years, the price high for March occurred ON the day of the Prospective plantings report.) During March of 2023, the November soybean price high was $13.86.

While past performance is never indicative of future results, the information is encouraging for those who need to make either old crop or new crop soybean sales.

Be ready to act on pricing opportunities as they become available. You will likely be busy wrapping up planting and will be distracted.

Have action plans ready for whatever market scenario unfolds. Remember, marketing is how you get paid for your hard work. Farm market scenario planning is hard work; and those who take time to strategize and execute will realize their pay day.

Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on Twitter: @naomiblohm, and at [email protected].

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