What a year! As we round out 2021 there is a lot of optimism in agriculture. Prices have been strong through two harvests. Some producers saw the best prices of their farming careers this season. U.S. farm income is expected to be the second highest of all time. Experts predict the world economy is primed for its strongest growth performance since … well, ever … which could only be good for agricultural demand and prices.
Also, for the second year in a row, overall crop yields have been excellent across the Midsouth. Despite a tricky spring and some significant weather events, most producers are sitting pretty as harvest winds down.
A farmer once told me that having good yields occur in the same year as good prices didn’t happen very often. Seeing them both in back-to-back years, is rare indeed. I’m betting it’s going to be a good Christmas on a lot of farms.
That’s not to say there aren’t challenges. Mostly where input costs are concerned. We’ve been talking about skyrocketing fertilizer costs for most of the year, but since mid-September prices have truly catapulted.
Climbing fuel prices are showing no signs of slowing down, either. At press time, diesel fuel prices in the Gulf Coast region were $3.42 a gallon. That’s a nearly $1.30 per gallon increase over the past year.
In this issue, we discuss land/rent costs. Yep, they are up, too. American farmland values went up 7% just this year. Average cash rent costs in the Midsouth increased almost 3% over the past year. In my home state of Tennessee, they were up 5%.
The effects of a growing economy will continue to add pressure to land prices. Also, in my home state, Ford has announced plans to build a 3,600-acre mega campus called Blue Oval City, where production of next generation all-electric F-series trucks will begin in 2025. That’s great news for the West Tennessee economy and area job seekers. But it’s also taking more than 3,000 acres of fertile farm ground out of production, in a county that already posts some of the highest farm rent rates in the state.
Prices and yields go up, but costs quickly begin to catch up to them. You may get ahead, but it’s hard to stay ahead.
I started to title this column, “Nothing going on but the rent,” but it felt too pessimistic. Yes, there are challenges on the horizon for which we need to prepare, but we shouldn’t let it completely overshadow the good. And 2021 was a good year to be a farmer.
English author and playwright Somerset Maugham once said, “nothing in the world is permanent, and we’re foolish when we ask anything to last, but surely we’re still more foolish not to take delight in it while we have it.”
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