Participants in this year's Winter Wheat Quality Tour wrestled with the unknown, evaluated the potential impact of disease on a crop up to two weeks ahead of schedule in development and took heart in seeing some really good-looking wheat as 18 cars drove six routes across the state from Colby to Wichita on Wednesday, May 3.

The bottom line at the end of the day was a Day 2 estimate of the Kansas wheat crop yield at 46.9 bushels per acre computed from 205 stops and a combined one- and two-day estimate of 44.9 bushels per acre based on 427 stops.

The tour continues to its final destination back in Manhattan on Thursday, with the final estimate of the 2017 harvest and a wrapup of observations of tour leaders and participants.

Every car in the Wednesday survey visited at least two or three fields that remained snow-covered three days after the weekend blizzard that dumped up to 20 inches of snow on western Kansas. They drove past dozens of others hard-hit by the freak storm.

The worst of the damage was observed coming south out of Colby, with Scott and Lane being the hardest hit. Field after field was still lying flat on the ground, and Extension specialists say it will be a week to 10 days before the fate of the crop becomes obvious.

In some fields, where half or more of the stalks were snapped off, there is little hope of recovery. But for others, where the wheat is simply flattened, there is a better opportunity.

The hope is the wheat — one of the most resilient crops in the world — will pop back up as the weather warms and growth resumes. The fear is that the combination of wind and freeze damage is so severe that even an apparent recovery will leave the crop in a weakened condition that will make it more susceptible to yield-robbing disease and insect pressure as the season progresses.

A big consideration is the fact that many fields in western and southern Kansas were heavily infected with wheat streak mosaic even before the weather event, and that pressure will continue to grow during the grain-fill season even if the crop recovers from weather damage.

WHEAT STREAK DAMAGE: The yellowed stalks and splayed growth pattern caused by wheat streak mosaic virus were apparent in several fields in western and southern Kansas. The disease is vectored by the wheat curl mite, which survives after harvest in fields of volunteer wheat and invades the newly emerging fall crop. Heavy infection can result in 100% yield loss, and many fields in western Kansas are likely to be abandoned because of the disease.

Kansas State University Extension wheat specialist Romulo Lollato said there is also the presence of stripe rust, leaf rust and stem rust in Oklahoma, and weather conditions will determine how much movement of that into Kansas occurs.

Of special concern on that front: The crop in southern Kansas is already at or past the window for fungicide treatment, so any disease that arrives cannot be countered.

"We have somewhere between six and nine weeks until harvest, and that's a lot of time for disease to do damage," Lollato warned.

The crop in the southern tier of counties also shows signs of nitrogen deficiency, with weaker plants and a yellow cast. The deficiency could be a result of farmers making a conscious decision not to spend money on inputs in a year when prices are extremely low.

But, Lollato said, it could also be a side effect of last year's incredibly high yields, which used up much more of the soil profile of nitrogen than in a normal year. That means that the routine applications of nitrogen in the fall and spring topdressing were insufficient to make up the deficit.

All in all, tour participants said they expect the central third of the state to have the best chance for a good to excellent harvest.

Producers share their thoughts
In the Wednesday night meeting in Wichita, several south-central Kansas producers shared their thoughts on the crop and the future of wheat.

Harper County producer Jim Robb said he has experimented with rotational crops, companion crops and cover crops and has found that canola is a beneficial rotation crop that not only provides an excellent grain crop but also a significant bump in wheat yields following canola.

Sumner County producer and wheat commissioner Scott Van Allen said he was happy to hear that tour participants were estimating 60-bushel yields in Sumner County.

"We have had a lot of fungicide applied this year," he said. "I think almost every farmer in the county has sprayed the crop. Stripe rust and leaf rust can be devastating, and I think we have learned that."

Harper County crop consultant Monty Hampton said that he has seen many of the problems tour participants described but said that he had also noticed an early problem with powdery mildew — something rarely seen in normally dry Kansas — and also with leaf rust just as the crop began flowering.

"I think we are seeing some excellent crops so far, but there is concern that some of the bottom areas are drowning out with the repeated rain events and standing water," he said. "We have also seen a little bit of wheat streak mosaic, but nothing that I think will become serious before harvest."

Wheat streak will be hot topic
Lollato said producers should be prepared for an elevated interest in preventing wheat streak mosaic in the coming weeks and months.

"This has been a serious problem this year," he said. "You can expect to hear more about it."

Lane County farmer Vance Ehmke, who grows and sells certified seed, said he certainly hopes so. He, like many of his colleagues, is fed up with producers who refuse to control the volunteer wheat that provides a "green bridge" for the wheat curl mite to survive after harvest and infect a vulnerable new crop.

"This situation is building an increasing number of very angry farmers," Ehmke said. "This disease problem is totally preventable. Something has to be done to get control of this situation."

Kansas State University Extension agronomists and Kansas Wheat leaders say that an accelerated education effort will be made this summer to make producers aware of the damage that failure to control volunteer wheat imposes on their neighbors and to increase the pressure for control.

Ehmke says a legal remedy may be the answer, and well-known agriculture attorney Roger McEowen has been studying the issue from a legal perspective.