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Satellite-Derived Yield Forecasts Claimed to Be Accurate and Reliable

Planalytics uses satellites to track the "greenness" of plant material and subsequently forecast yields.

May 2, 2008

2 Min Read

Using satellite imagery to measure plant biomass, a team of crop scientists had demonstrated an ability to forecast yields of various crops much sooner than traditional methods.

"Since 1999, Planalytics and our strategic partner, TerraMetrics Agriculture Inc., have used satellite imagery to track and measure vegetative growth conditions across the U.S.," says Jed Lafferty, managing director of Planalytics Life Sciences.

"The satellite images estimate the amount of chlorophyll that growing plants are producing," he continues. "By combining these 'greenness' maps with our weather intelligence to create Planalytics GreenReport, we can provide our clients with more timely and actionable information than they get with just the drought monitor or soil reports."

According to Lafferty, a team of TMAI crop scientists and the Kansas Applied Remote Sensing program, at the University of Kansas, recently compiled six years of nationwide crop yield forecast results for wheat (spring, winter and durum), corn, soybeans, oats, barley and sorghum. The first winter wheat forecast for 2008 was produced on March 21.

"By using satellite imagery instead of traditional sampling techniques, crop yield forecasts can be generated up to two months before USDA estimates," Lafferty says. "And because they are based on images that are constantly being downloaded from the satellite, we can update these forecasts every two weeks throughout the growing season."

Lafferty adds that compared to initial USDA forecasts and normalized trends, the TMAI/KARS forecast models have shown to be consistently more accurate in recent years.

"It is hard to say whether it is the methodology that's used or the volatility of recent years' weather events, but these bi-weekly crop forecasts appear to answer many of the questions that our clients involved in grain trade have been struggling with," Lafferty says.

Planalytics GreenReport and crop yield forecasts are available through subscription only. For more information, visit www.planalytics.com or call 800-882-5881, ext. 972.

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