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Sorghum industry enters 2019 with full-fledged optimism

After a challenging 2018 for sorghum on multiple fronts, 2019’s outlook seems positive.

John Duff

December 31, 2018

3 Min Read
sorghum field

Looking back on 2018, I couldn’t be more proud of the U.S. sorghum industry. The last 12 months have been the most challenging in decades for American agriculture, and everyone on Team Sorghum — including our farmers, our board members and our staff — stepped up their game. It’s been amazing to see how the industry has responded, and it made weathering 2018 a rewarding (to the extent possible!) experience.

As my predecessor Chris Cogburn wrote about extensively while the Chinese trade saga was unfolding during the first half of the year, we began 2018 knowing we were playing a long game. U.S. sorghum farmers were accused of dumping, or selling below the cost of production, by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Commerce (MOFCOM) on Feb. 4, and we prepared to defend them believing we had an 18-month process of investigation and adjudication ahead of us.

The rest of 2018, as well as much of 2019 and beyond, looked bleak for sorghum. However, due to the extraordinary nature of the circumstances surrounding the U.S.-China trade dispute, the normal 18-month process was greatly shortened, and by spring, the sorghum industry was mounting a defense.

The months after MOFCOM announced the investigation were fascinating — and exhausting. Nine sorghum farmers stepped up to provide information, and before the sun rose in the U.S. on April 4, our attorneys in China had submitted the sorghum industry’s official response in the form of a 2,000-page document.

The document included significantly less information than the mountains of paper used to prepare it, and in all, we collected around 4,500 pages of information from the participating farmers in about seven days. It was a financially invasive exercise, so words can’t express how grateful we were that these nine farmers were committed enough to the future of sorghum to complete the process.

Although we knew there was a long way to go, submitting the response was a big milestone and allowed Team Sorghum to breathe a sigh of relief. However, the year dealt the industry yet another blow when, on April 17, MOFCOM announced preliminary tariffs of 178.6%, halting trade and further weakening an already-shaky economic environment for sorghum farmers. Then, as quickly as the whole situation escalated, it ended.

On May 17, as part of the political settlement with the Chinese company ZTE Corporation, the sorghum investigation was terminated, effective immediately. Our farmers were back in business.

But 2018 wouldn’t let go that easily. Although small amounts of U.S. sorghum made their way to China in early summer, the massive amount of political uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade situation kept farmers on the sidelines of the market.

To make matters worse, tariffs of 25% took effect on July 6 for sorghum and 105 other commodities, so our ability to trade — even without uncertainty — was severely hampered. And, to add insult to injury, drought in the areas of the Sorghum Belt that typically help supply international markets kept us from having a normal-sized crop to sell, anyway. What a year!

Maybe fittingly, given the struggles the sorghum industry had in 2018, the future looked much brighter as the sun was setting on the year.

Discussion between the Trump administration and China seemed to be progressing well; sorghum farmers were set to receive assistance through the Market Facilitation Program on what turned out to be a solid crop in many areas; and abundant fall moisture had completely transformed the countryside across the Sorghum Belt. In fact, many sorghum farmers now believe they could be one rain away from a crop in 2019.

Collectively, our farmers, board and staff are the very embodiment of perseverance, and I couldn’t be more ready to go into battle with Team Sorghum in 2019.

Duff is a strategic business director for National Sorghum Producers. He can be reached by email at [email protected] or find him on Twitter @sdorghumduff.

About the Author(s)

John Duff

John Duff is founder of Serō Ag Strategies and serves as a consultant to National Sorghum Producers.

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