Soybean sales were a bright spot in an otherwise lackluster set of data from USDA’s latest weekly report, out Friday morning. But Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr says healthy soybean numbers probably won’t influence trading much because the number was largely baked into expectations.
“Much of the total came from a previously announced sale to China that was apparently done when trade talks with the U.S. opened up this spring,” he says. “The deal adds to China’s large book of 212 million bushels in outstanding sales. With total unshipped sales to all customers at a record 390 million bushels, exporters will be busy this summer.”
For the week ending June 27, soybeans saw 31.9 million bushels in old crop sales plus another 5.9 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 37.8 million bushels. That was more than double the prior week’s tally of 17.9 million bushels and a bit higher than trade estimates of 33.1 million bushels.
Soybean export shipments of 29.1 million bushels kept close to the weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts, which moved slightly higher to 34.1 million bushels. China continues to be the leading destination for U.S. export commitments for 2018/19, with 30% of the total. Other top destinations include the European Union (15%), Mexico (10%) and Egypt (9%).
Corn exports saw 6.9 million bushels in old crop sales and another 6.2 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 13.1 million bushels. That was slightly behind both the prior week’s tally of 15.9 million bushels and analyst expectations of 17.7 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts also moved higher, to 30.5 million bushels, as the 2018/19 marketing year begins to wind down.
“Higher prices and uncertainty over production continue to ration demand for corn,” Knorr says. “Look for USDA to lower its forecast for 2018 sales in next week’s monthly production, supply and demand report.”
Corn export shipments were also mediocre, at 11.5 million bushels – bringing the weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts up to 56.8 million bushels. Mexico leads all destinations for U.S. corn export commitments so far this marketing year, with 31% of the total. Other leading destinations include Japan (24%), Colombia (9%), South Korea (8%), Peru (4%) and Taiwan (4%).
Wheat exports notched 10.2 million bushels in old crop sales last week, falling significantly below the prior week’s total of 22.5 million bushels and moderately behind trade estimates of 14.7 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts remains a manageable 13.2 million bushels so far in the young 2019/20 marketing year, however.
“It’s still early, and wheat demand in most years depend on how much the competition has to offer,” Knorr notes.
Wheat export shipments were for 17.2 million bushels. For the 2019 calendar year, Mexico and the Philippines are the leading destinations for U.S. wheat export commitments, with 12% of the total each. Other top destinations include unknown destinations (10%), Japan (9%), Nigeria (8%), Taiwan (5%), and Algeria (5%).
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