Excessive rainfall delayed planting at the time of data collection for the USDA June planted acreage report in Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota. In July, USDA contacted respondents in these states to verify planted acreage for several crops including sunflowers.

USDA made adjustments to some crops but left planted and harvested area estimates for oil and non-oil sunflower unchanged from the June report figures.

According to USDA, area planted to sunflower in 2022 increased 29% from 2021 and totals 1.67 million acres. Harvested area for all types is expected to increase 29% from last year to 1.6 million acres. Planted area of oil-type varieties, at 1.54 million acres, is up 31% from 2021. Harvested area for oil types is expected to increase 29% from last year to 1.49 million acres. Planted acreage of non-oil varieties, estimated at 123,000, is up 11% from last year. Harvested area is expected to increase 10% from last year to 114,700 acres.

Initial estimates using trend yields peg U.S. oil-type sunflower production at 2.44 billion pounds, up 40% from last year, with confection sunflower production at 193 million pounds, up 16% from 2021.

Global production down

USDA has 2022-23 global sunflower production estimated at 51.95 million metric tons, which is down about 10% from last year. The decrease is mainly due to smaller crops in Ukraine and European Union. Russia and Argentina are expected to have higher production than last year. Ending global seed stocks are expected to stay relatively low, representing only 12% of annual usage.

With harvest in progress in the Northern Hemisphere, the market is beginning to look at 2023 production prospects in the Southern Hemisphere. Farmers in both Brazil and Argentina are talking about a major increase in soybean acres. If realized, this could put pressure on U.S. new-crop oilseed prices this fall into winter.

U.S. producers are also looking at crop options for next year. Crush plants were out early offering 2023 new-crop contracts. NuSun is at $23.50 to $25.75, with high-oleic sunflowers at $26 to $26.75.

Something else to consider is the oil premiums that crush plants pay on sunflowers, which is the only oilseed that pays premiums for oil content above 40%. Crush plants offer a 2% price premium for each 1% of oil above 40%. This would give a contract with 45% oil content a gross return of 10% higher per cwt. The NuSun contract for $23.50 would increase to $25.85, and the high-oleic contract of $26.75 would move up to $29.40.

Nearby prices at the crush plants are trading at $25.60 to $27.75. Depending on the size of the 2022 crop, seed prices could drift lower as harvest deliveries arrive at plants and farmers pick up the selling pace in the next couple of months. After the initial harvest delivery period, prices will follow demand news.

Sandbakken writes from Mandan, N.D., and is the executive director of the National Sunflower Association. You can find market news and prices at sunflowernsa.com.