June 1, 2018
Soybean traders continue to debate the uncertainties involving the worlds #1 buyer of soybeans. If we can reach some type of trade resolution this weekend, when U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilber Ross visits with Chinese officials, the market will respond positively Sunday night with a significantly higher open. I'm not holding my breath, as it seems we are still a long ways from ironing out all the wrinkles with the Chinese. I don't think we are close on a new NAFTA deal either.
The trade seems eager for Monday to arrive, in hopes the USDA might provide us with their first look at overall U.S. soy crop-conditions. Last year we didn't see the first crop-condition forecast until June 12th, when the crop was 92% planted and 77% emerged, so we still might be a week early. The first condition rating for last year's crop was estimated at 66% "Good-to-Excellent". The same week in 2016 showed the crop rated 74% "Good-to-Excellent".
In other words, if the crop-condition estimate for soybeans is actually released Monday after the close, the trade will probably be expecting a fairly strong overall condition estimate. I included below a graphic that details the overall percentage of U.S. soybean acres each state will plant.
As you can see Illinois is the hands down leader in total soybean acres, followed by Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Indiana. These five-states combined will be controlling just over 46% of the U.S. soybean acres. I still believe there is a longer-term bull story brewing, but as I've said for many weeks, it's highly debatable in regards to how and when we get there... I'm staying extremely patient!
About the Author(s)
Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead.
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