The likelihood of experiencing and El Nino cycle increases every day, which would prove very bearish to grain prices.

Cash markets associated with corn exports continue to be the top bidder for old-crop corn. The U.S. has an unusual 430 million bushels of outstanding corn sales in week 39 (65% higher than the three-year average). Cash prices are expected to remain better in the exports draw areas around the Mississippi, Illinois and Ohio rivers.

The tightness in old-crop soybeans continues to be the story for commodity markets. U.S. soybean exports are at record-high levels and year-to-date NOPA crush is running at the third highest pace on record.

Ammonia, DAP and potash prices continue to be below the three-year average in 2014.