Of all the months of the year, February is the one with the strongest warming trend in Minnesota.

For some western and northern Minnesota climate stations, February has warmed by 7 to 9 degrees F over what it was a century ago. On a statewide basis, February today is about 6 degrees F warmer than February 100 years ago, based on changes in the mean monthly temperature. In fact, 13 of the 20 warmest months of February in state history — back to 1895 — have occurred since 1983. Fourteen of the most recent 20 months of February have been warmer than normal.

Strong evidence can be found in the persistence of above-normal temperatures during the month, especially when there is an absence of snow cover. For example, last February, 25 of the 28 days were warmer than normal across most of the state.

Other evidence can be found in the amplified temperature measurements and record-setting high daily values that have occurred in recent years — some of which have been 25 to 35 degrees F above normal. In 2002, 2005, 2009, 2011, 2016 and 2017, many new daily high temperature records were set during the month of February across the state, with thermometers reading in the 60s during the afternoon.

Many records set in February 2017
During February of last year, more than 280 new daily high temperature records were set within the Minnesota climate observer network, an unusually high number of record values for a single month.

The only years when Minnesota has recorded a February temperature of 70 degrees F or greater are 1896, 2000 and 2017, and all were under conditions of no snow cover.

However, even with snow cover, sometimes temperatures have soared to record highs. This was the case at International Falls, Minn., last year when the temperature reached a record 58 degrees F on Feb. 17 with 16 inches of snow on the ground.

Though a modest La Niña episode (cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean) is in play this winter and is historically associated with cooler-than-normal winter temperatures in Minnesota, I would not be surprised at all to see a streak of above-normal temperatures prevail sometime during February 2018. This will be especially probable if we have shallow or little snow cover as we start out the month.

We shall see.

Seeley is an Extension climatologist with the University of Minnesota.