First, appear torn between reflecting fundamentals, technical, and normal market participant activity, and

Second, reflecting price complexity created by building fiscal and monetary intervention required

If they raise the rates the Central Banks destroy debtors and asset markets.

If they keep rates at zero the Central Banks destroy pension funds, banks and insurers. Simon Mikhailovich @S_Mikhailovich

USDA’s 2015/16 July 2016 price estimate                                $11.00 ($/cwt)

USDA’s 2016/17 July 2016 price estimate                                $10.50 ($/cwt)

Change from June 10, 2016                                                         - 0%

Change from 2015/16 on June 10                                              - 4.5%

September 2016 current price                                                     $9.30 ($/cwt)

Near term continued potential price weakness remains

USDA’s 2015/16 July 2016 price estimate                                $9.05 ($/bu)

USDA’s 2016/17 July 2016 price estimate                                $9.50 ($/bu)

Change from June 10, 2016                                                         - 0%

Change from 2015/16 on June 10                                              - 5.0%

November 2016 current price                                                      $9.74 ($/bu)

Scenario 1 - Near term corrective price strength into the $10.00 to $10.25 area before additional price weakness resumes possibly into the $8.50 area.

Scenario 2 – Prices may have bottomed.

USDA’s 2015/16 July 2016 price estimate                                $0.55 (c/lb)

USDA’s 2016/17 July 2016 price estimate                                $0.59 (c/lb)

Change from June 10, 2016                                                         + 3.5%

Change from 2015/16 on June 10                                              + 1.7%

December 2016 current price                                                      $0.77 (c/lb)

Potential price strength into the $0.85-plus area

USDA’s 2015/16 July 2016 price estimate                                $3.65 ($/bu)

USDA’s 2016/17 July 2016 price estimate                                $3.40 ($/bu)

Change from June 10, 2016                                                         - 2.9%

Change from 2015/16 on June 10                                              - 6.8%

December 2016 current price                                                      $3.34 ($/bu)

2 possibilities

USDA’s 2015/16 July 2016 price estimate                                $4.89 ($/bu)

USDA’s 2016/17 July 2016 price estimate                                $3.80 ($/bu)

Change from June 10, 2016                                                         - 5%

Change from 2015/16 on June 10                                              - 22.3%

September 2016 current price                                                     $4.16 ($/BU)

Presently likely corrective price activity into the $4.50-plus area

Followed by likely decline to a new low into $3.75 area

Globally, most market participants including governments and central banks increasingly acknowledge “Chronically Weak Global Growth”

In the aggregate all governments, central banks, markets, businesses must adjust to a sustained period of

Governments and central banks will fight global deflationary forces with reflationary stimulus and monetary policy activities

Technology’s impact on the global labor force

For businesses globally it’s a period of consolidation

“Highly Efficient Businesses” especially in the agricultural sector will have increasing opportunity

Sustained periods of anemic global growth create:

Expect building on-going fiscal and monetary stimulus. Watch fiscal and monetary intervention from Japan, United Kingdom, European Union, and China, to gain insight about types of intervention activities

A potential 2017 U.S. Recession will likely be delayed until 2019 given collective building global fiscal and monetary intervention activities.

Do not underestimate social mood’s building impact on country after country around the world and their political, economic, and social stability and their destabilizing and volatility impact on global markets.

Globally governments and central banks are in crisis management mode.

Collectively fiscal and monetary stimulus around the world will likely build over the next 12 months.

U.S. treasuries are very likely to remain sideways given their near-term bullish move (lower yields).

Near term the dollar should be sideways and remain range bound.

Remember, the Fed has real concerns about reaching and maintaining their 2-percent inflation objective in a stagnant global economic setting.

To achieve this objective it would be helpful for oil prices to be in a $50.00 trading range and the dollar not to rise significantly, like they did on June 24.

Near term U.S. equities may or may not need additional time to consolidate before moving significantly higher.

It is certainly worth noting that global reflation has reemerged. I expect that this is going to be an ongoing exercise of risk-on and risk-off for the foreseeable future.

Near term continued potential price weakness remains.

At the present time the U.S. supply simply exceeds demand.

Scenario 1 - Near term corrective price strength into the $10.00 to $10.25 area before additional price weakness resumes possibly into the $8.50 area.

Scenario 2 – Prices have bottomed.

Maintain very tight price stops.

Potential price strength into the $0.85-plus area

2 possibilities

Presently likely correctively price activity into the $4.50-plus area.

Followed by likely decline to a new low into $3.75 area.

Uncertain anomaly events and elevated levels of risk events are now with us for a number of years into the future.

These events will likely exert strong influences on market participants with the potential to create major swings and directional changes in individual or multiple markets.

Expect increasingly complex price patterns.