September 30, 2016
Soybean bulls continue to point towards strong demand from the Chinese.
In fact, there's been a lot more talk inside the trade about Chinese meal demand increasing exponentially as their government shuts down a large portion of the DDGs being imported.
The bears however are pointing to very real possibility that the USDA could raise last years U.S. production number in todays report and the fact Sept. 1 stocks could be a bit more burdensome than some are anticipating. The bears also continue to point towards the possibility of the USDA raising both their yield and acreage estimates for the U.S. crop in the upcoming Oct. 12 monthly "Supply and Demand" report.
Keep in mind, that report is just seven short trading days away. It's just tough to extend a major rally when the trade continues to talk about ending stocks potential pushing north of 400 million bushels.
As a producer, I continue to keep my hedges in place. As a spec, I continue to like the thought of being a longer-term buyer but still see no need to get in any hurry. There's still a ton of market focus being placed on the U.S. crop and it appears to be getting only larger.
In addition the early South American weather is mostly cooperative. In other words, there's really nothing out there in the headlines to spook the bears. Keep you eye on todays USDA data, I imagine it could create some loud noise within the soybean market.
About the Author(s)
Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead.
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