Weather forecasts are mostly mixed. Bulls argue there's still way too much moisture in the soil and rain in the forecast for many important U.S. production areas. Bulls are also pointing to the game-clock, which has been ticking away. Next Wednesday is May 1st, perhaps the bears will start to take more notice once we flip the calendar.
It will be interesting to see how much we have planted by mid-May. Remember, back in 2013 we only had about 5% of the crop planted in the week ending April 28. And only 28% of the corn crop planted by the week ending May 12. That was about 37% behind our historical pace for that week. I suspect we will be ahead of that pace this year. Stay tuned!
Technical gurus are arguing that the market is now a bit over-sold and may have to trade sideways-to-higher before resuming an additional bearish tilt. As a spec, I desperately want to be a longer-term bull, but I'm going to remain patient. I'm worried that a small move higher, while the bears are catching their breath, could entice smaller spec buying. The funds might use that rally or strength as an opportunity to add more length to their record short position. I don't see the funds shaking out of their short position easily or anytime real soon. Be careful falling into a bull-trap on a bounce.
As we've all learned in life, picking bottoms can be a messy business! I want to see some confirmed upside momentum before I put my money to work as a spec. Picking the exact bottom isn't nearly as important to me as making sure it's not a head-fake.
The next USDA report is in two weeks, Friday May 10. I don't see why the funds would want to bust out ahead of those numbers. It doesn't seem like there's anything for them to be scared of... South American production is probably moving higher and U.S. demand probably moving lower.