The public looks at futures traders as the flash-and-dashers of the financial world. That’s certainly not the image most city folks have about agriculture.

But farmers spend a lot of time thinking about futures prices, even if only a third of them trade. Using futures, as well as options, in a marketing plan has some advantages. Chief among them is flexibility.

When a farmer sells cash grain, either from inventory or through a cash contract, that’s pretty much it. If yields come in short, or prices begin to rally, it’s possible to buy your way out of the contract. But those instances are the exception, not the rule.

With exchange-traded contracts, however, there’s always a way out. Those who sell futures can buy back the short position, though it could be at a loss. And those who want only short-term protection for periods of uncertainty can put it on and off as conditions dictate.

Of course, that’s the sales pitch. There may be good reasons for getting out of a hedge if crops begin baking in the field. Otherwise, this type of trading smacks of speculation, or at least trying to time the markets. Academic experts laugh at this effort, saying no one can really “beat” the market.

But what if they could?

We can’t offer definitive evidence that short-term trading is effective, documented by audits of actual trades and financial statements. But self-reporting from farmers responding to a recent Farm Futures survey suggests this type of “selective hedging” may work for some growers — if they follow some rules used by other traders.

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We asked growers to grade their ability at taking short-term positions in futures or options. Those that gave themselves an “A” or a “B” were more likely to rank among the most profitable of the more than 1,200 farms we surveyed in March.

Then we asked growers if they used any of 15 methods for disciplining their sales. Those who used more than five of these were even more likely to be top earners.

Six of these tools appeared especially useful, showing a statistically significant correlation with high profitability:

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Growers who said they followed at least four of these ideas were over four times as likely to rank in the top 5% in profitability of the farms we surveyed. They also had more of their 2017 crops priced than the average producer surveyed.

Still, before hoping to become a gunslinger, remember the advice of one grower we surveyed who tried: “Lost money every time.”