Missed some grain market news this week? Here's what Bryce Knorr and Ben Potter have been writing about this week.

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Grain markets start the week with mixed activity overnight with two recent themes – weather and trade – in play as April ends. Negotiators from the U.S. and China are in Beijing for another round of talks, with negotiations shifting to Washington next week as the two side try to hammer out a deal. Another big storm system is moving through the Midwest as well, which could keep high water on the Mississippi River an issue well into May.

Today is first notice day for May futures and an active start to deliveries in corn and wheat kept the grain market under wraps overnight despite another round of heavy rains moving through the Midwest with more storms on the way over the next two weeks. Ongoing trade talks with China provided a little support for soybeans overnight, even though China has yet to start taking delivery of the large purchases made when the negotiations got going again over the winter.

May Day is a holiday in many corners of the world, but not in the U.S., where markets face a heavy news flow. Corn traders continue to eye a big storm on radar screens with more storms forecast for the next two weeks helping prices move higher overnight. Soybeans are steady as trade talks in China continue, while wheat is higher, helped by a weaker dollar as investors wait for the latest decision on interest rates from the Federal Reserve today.

May Day was a holiday around the world, and some countries are off again today. But the U.S. dealt with a heavy day of news. While farmers continue to watch flood waters rise on the river system, a tour is finding good hard red winter wheat yields on the Plains. Optimism over potential for a trade deal with China didn’t help soybeans, and financial markets took a hit in the aftermath of the latest meeting at the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Jerome Powell throwing cold water on hopes for an interest rate cut.

As one storm system exits the Midwest this morning, shippers are dealing with the aftermath of recent heavy rains that choked off traffic along the Illinois River. More precipitation is on the way over the next week but forecasts are finally hinting at a return to more normal rainfall in the western Corn Belt. Financial markets also brace for volatility with release of the latest jobs numbers today.

Feedback from the Field

Farmers in a few areas of the Midwest got back into the field last week, with progress noted in the western Corn Belt. Work in other areas proceeded in fits and starts – if at all – as a series of storms continue to pummel key parts of the growing region.

USDA reports

Farmers who are hungry for bullish export data got some welcome news Monday, after USDA reported another solid week of export inspections for corn for the week ending April 25.

Corn planting progress reached 15% across the top 18 production states as of April 28, according to the latest crop progress updates from USDA, out Monday afternoon. That was slightly ahead of analyst estimates of 14%.

With another round of USDA export data in the books, the latest numbers look pretty pedestrian, according to Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. As grain markets continue to place great scrutiny on sales trends to China, Knorr notes the country picked up a couple of loads last week – however, most of those purchases were switched from previously announced sales headed to “unknown destinations,” so they didn’t have a large impact on total bookings.

Exports

Private exporters reported the first export sale of soybeans since April 15 on May 3, with Mexico taking 10.8 million bushels of soybeans for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

Market recaps

Grain futures are mixed today as a choppy overnight session winds down with weather and trade still dominating sentiment. Little traffic is moving this morning on the Illinois River, where several locks are closed due to high water. The CBOT Thursday declared force majeure on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers, where flooding prevented shipping stations from loading grain. The move delays obligations for those who can’t meet terms of deliveries.

Some technical maneuvering Friday dialed in some small changes to grain prices, with the exception of Chicago CBOT contracts, which fell more than 1% in the ses-sion on a round of profit-taking spurred by improving U.S. crop quality and large global supplies.

Outlooks

Basis Outlook - Pricing corn just a couple of days off contract lows may seem like a move to toss in the towel in 2018 crop marketing plans. But very strong basis in many locations could offer growers an opportunity to begin pricing some of the large inventories still in storage.

Fertilizer Outlook - Weather disruptions and signs of international demand caused a big spike in urea last week. But other parts of the fertilizer market could ratchet lower in an industry where little can be taken for granted.

Corn Outlook - With corn planting slow and likely about to get slower, growers are understandably frustrated at the market’s ability to sustain a rally. Instead of a rebound, futures made new contract lows in the last full week of April trading.

Soybean Outlook - USDA is likely to come out with a first monthly estimate of 2019 supply and demand on May 10 that doesn’t show much of a change from this year. The projection will still show burdensome supplies – and it might be optimistic.

Wheat Outlook - USDA on May 10 will provide its first estimate of winter wheat production and overall supply and demand for 2019. All signs point to an all-wheat crop that’s bigger than last year despite acreage that’s likely the lowest on record. The agency’s estimate of supplies leftover at the end of the 2019 marketing year 13 months from now may not increase much from this year. But they’ll still be plenty in a world where shortages of wheat are few and far between.

Energy/Ethanol Outlook - Farmers know all about the pain funds can inflict on their markets when the pack starts selling. But a bearish turn by funds in one commodity could help growers avoid pain -- at the pump.

Financial Outlook - The White House stepped up rhetoric for lower interest rates after the Federal Reserve showed it was in no hurry to change course on monetary policy at its May meeting. The urgency from an administration firing on all fronts came despite a flow of economic news that was just about as good as it gets.