Mike Pearson tells us what traders are contemplating in the 100th annual Ag Outlook conducted by the USDA.

USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyers told a group the outlook looks grim for production agriculture with a tight operating budget. He said to expect lower commodity prices and higher input costs.

"It was a little easier to make money in 2023 but it will be harder in 2024."

Producers should expect $4.40 a bushel for corn, down 8 1/2 percent from 2024; $11.20 for a bushel of beans, that's an 11 percent decline and $6 for wheat which is a 17 percent drop.

Producers should also expect lower exports in 2024 especially with 6 million metric tons of soybeans coming from Brazil and 2 million tons from Argentina, a full 3 months before the U.S. harvest.

Another concern will be lack of exports for corn especially due to the situation with China, which could grow the U.S. domestic stock by 50 percent which would result in lower prices.

And wheat could fall to the lowest price in 50 years because of the European supply.

Some good things to note in the outlook is lower fertilizer prices than 2023 but weather will be the real driver of all grain prices just like every other year.

Farm Progress America is a daily look at key issues in agriculture. It is produced and presented by Mike Pearson, farm broadcaster and host of This Week in Agribusiness.