I grew up on a farm, so I know each new year always brings hopeful optimism for those in agriculture. We budget and plan based on realistic outcomes and 10 years of actual production history, but we drive and nurture to outperform those estimates. So, as I apply that same exercise to the land market, what can you expect for 2024?

We ended 2023 with a stable market, having plateaued from the incredible run-up from 2020 to 2022. In the second half of 2023, market-wide sales volume noticeably slowed in comparison to the 12 months prior, and inputs like fertilizer softened leading into the 2024 crop year. These shifts in sales volume and input prices supported land prices. However, much lower commodity prices and much higher interest rates should point the market downward.

In this 2023 tug of war, it seems recent year profits — or in other words, cash piles — were still available to power many land purchases. Therefore, strong liquidity and cash availability helped the land market remain resilient in the face of underlying pressures.

Will this continue in the new year? I expect it will, depending on the area. For the sales reported below, however, it is obvious that there is still more strength than weakness.

Lyon County. North of Little Rock, ±80 acres recently sold at public auction for $15,200 per acre. The farm consisted of ±76 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 84.5, and equaled $189 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.

Hancock County. Near Britt, ±147 acres recently sold at public auction for $11,000 per acre. The farm consisted of ±146 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 60.6, and equaled $183 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.

Chickasaw County. West of Fredericksburg, ±70 ± acres recently sold at public auction for $16,500 per acre. The farm consisted of ±70 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 88.3, and equaled $187 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.

Ida County. Northwest of Holstein, ±120 acres recently sold at public auction for $15,100 per acre. The farm consisted of ±115 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 86.7, and equaled $182 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.

Boone County. East of Boone, ±51 acres recently sold at public auction for $17,600 per acre. The farm consisted of ±50 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 85.7, and equaled $209 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.

Scott County. Northeast of Durant, ±200 acres recently sold for $16,500 per acre. The farm consisted of ±185 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 79.9, and equaled $223 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres. This sale also included an older farmhouse and older farm buildings.

Fremont County. Northwest of Shenandoah, ±124 acres recently sold at public auction for $8,250 per acre. The farm consisted of ±119 tillable acres, with a CSR2 of 71.6, and equaled $120 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres. This farm included terraces throughout.

Madison County. Northwest of Macksburg, ±54 acres recently sold at public auction for $8,250 per acre. The farm consisted of ±41 tillable acres with a CSR2 of 51.4, and equaled $211 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.

Lee County. Southwest of Donnellson, ±85 tillable acres recently sold at public auction for $11,600 per acre. The acres had a CSR2 of 55.1, and equaled $211 per CSR2 point on the tillable acres.

Hensley is president of Hertz Real Estate Services, which compiled this list but did not handle all sales. Call Hertz at 515-382-1500 or 800-593-5263, or visit hertz.ag.