The majority of the sunflower crop has been rated in the good to excellent categories in North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota throughout the growing season. This should mean that yields will be above trend, assuming normal weather through the rest of this fall and the lack of an early freeze.

The exception to this has been Colorado, where drought has most of the crop rated in fair condition and yields will likely be impacted.

Overall, most market analysts are expecting U.S. sunflower yields to be above the five year average this year.

According to USDA, area planted to oil type sunflower varieties in 2020 increased 15% from 2019 and totals 1.37 million acres. Confection sunflower acres increased 11% from 2019 and totals 170,500 acres. Initial industry estimates of total 2020 U.S. sunflower production are in a range of 2.2-2.4 billion pounds, which is about 25% higher than last year’s crop.

Last fall’s excessive moisture and losses due to disease resulted in a reduction of harvested acres and only 1.9 billion pounds of seed production. USDA will provide their updated yield and production estimates for sunflower in October.

USDA reduced 2020-21 global sunflower seed production by nearly 1 million metric tons (MMT) to 55.8 MMT on lower output in Russia, Kazakhstan and Moldova as drought conditions curbed yields. Effects of the extreme heat on soil moisture conditions were compounded when less than half of normal precipitation was received as the crop was advancing through its peak flowering period. Traders will be watching this region closely during harvest monitoring yields, as Russia is the second largest sunflower producer in the world.

According to Hamburg-based Oil World, world vegetable oil trade volumes have increased sharply from unusually low levels in January-March 2020. The uptrend in demand has caused a steep increase in prices.

The boost in exports has been attributed to a loosening of pandemic lockdowns and pent up demand had been created on a severe decline in vegetable oil stocks in importing countries.

Sunflower oil exports to China, India and many other countries have reached record levels so far this year. This is good news for high oil-bearing crops such as sunflower. U.S. sunflower oil export supplies have tightened recently and will only improve when new crop supplies start moving to the crush plants in the coming months.

Additionally, 2020-21 world vegetable oils stocks are expected to decline by 1.54 MMT while consumption is expected to increase by 6 MMT. This will create a large production shortfall in meeting global demand and should open significant buying interest to the benefit sunflower oil to fulfill oil purchases. The reduced global oil supply should lead to oil providing a larger share of the crush value thus further supporting seed prices at the crush plants.

In preparation for harvest, producers are cleaning out storage bins and deliveries to crush plants have been on the increase. This along with new crop deliveries could pressure prices in the near term. To keep up with price movement you can go to sunflowernsa.com.

Sandbakken is executive director of the National Sunflower Association.