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What to expect from the markets this week
Market “Near Term” Snap Shot:
10-year Treasury Yield: Remains Bullish: We enter the week with the 10 Year US Treasury Yield slightly bullish with a potentially lower yield (trend presently remains bullish or lower yield)
S&P 500: Near term cautiously bullish
Global Equities: Near term cautiously bullish
U.S. Dollar: Remains Bearish: For a period the dollar should have more weakness than strength.
Oil $WTIC: Remains Bearish:
Complex, geopolitically charged market filled with price uncertainty
The immediate question: Will current price level hold for a period?
Commodity Index: This index should be in a bottoming process
Corn: Correcting upside move before moving higher toward the $4.55 area
Wheat: Price potential to $5.51 remains a possibility
Soybeans: In search of a bottom at current levels or the $8.35 area
Rice: Bullish bias remains
Cotton: Another important week for cotton. Prices need to hold current levels or otherwise consideration has to be given to revisiting the 2016 low around 55-cents
In addition to the following “Expanded near Term Market Considerations Week Beginning June 26, 2017”
To download slide show for charts and expanded details, click download button below.
This Week’s Select Summary Considerations:
10-Year US Treasury Yield:
We enter the week with the 10 Year US Treasury Yield slightly bullish with a potentially lower yield (trend presently remains bullish or lower yield)
Demand, Economic Weakness, Event Risk Concerns, or Other Market Concerns/Factors will likely take yields lower to 2 or below before significant move higher
Near term the yield curve is flattening
US Dollar Index:
Remains Bearish: For a period the dollar should have more weakness than strength
Big Picture: The dollar has a bullish bias given global economic, social, political and military challenges
Unless Middle East, North Korean, European or other anomaly events start to dominate market participant decisions for a period, then we are still DEFINING a trading range 95 -104
CRB Index:
Near-term bottom possibly forming
Caution is advised since global economic uncertainties remain problematic
Bigger Picture: Though spastic global macro and growth forces in general remain supportive of the commodity sector
$WTIC Light Crude Oil:
Fundamentals have overridden OPEC verbal guidance and an array of other factors
Fundamentals and other factors now suggest consideration of a possible price move below $41
Saudi Arabia, OPEC, other oil producers and others have major role in limiting 2017 price downside
As always, remain focused on the bigger “Geopolitical Picture and Building Military Friction”
Soybeans:
In search of a bottom in the $9.06 area
A resumption of commodity index weakness, a likely function of fundamentals and Fiscal and Monetary Policy and Global Economic Uncertainties, could translate into a final price low at $8.35 or lower
Corn:
Correcting upside move before moving to new highs
Cautionary Note: Sustained oil price weakness could possibly be problematic for corn prices
Long Grain Rice:
Bullish bias remains
This is a highly complex market with an array of factors impacting price from 2016-2017 fundamentals; 2017 acreage, production and quality uncertainties; present underlying aggregate commodity sector dynamics; problematic global economic momentum, geopolitical uncertainties, and/or global agronomic outlook
Cotton:
Another important week for cotton. Prices need to hold current levels or otherwise consideration has to be given to revisiting the 2016 low around 55-cents
Wheat:
Price potential to $5.51 remains a possibility
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF:
Near term cautiously bullish
Allow price action to unfold
Larger trend remains up
QQQ NASDAQ Power Shares:
Near-term cautiously bullish
Momentum driven by a select few technology stocks
Allow price action to unfold
Trend remains up
EFA iShares ETF - Global Equities Excluding U.S. and Canada:
Cautiously bullish
Trend remains up
EEM iShares ETF, Emerging Market Equities:
Entering a cautionary period
Trend remains up
Bobby Coats is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Division of Agriculture, University of Arkansas System. E-mail: [email protected].
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