Farm Progress

Why USDA may move corn ending stocks lower?

A better corn market is on the way for both old-crop and new-crop.

Kevin Van Trump, Founder

February 4, 2017

1 Min Read

Corn bulls continue trying to push the new-crop DEC17 contract to $4.00 per bushel.

Talk of more weather uncertainty in Argentina and portions of Brazil, along with continued strong demand numbers out of the U.S. provides hope and keeps prices supported. Most inside the trade are thinking the USDA will need to trim their U.S. corn ending stocks forecast on stronger than expected ethanol and export demand.

The problem is we will still be swimming in a glut of corn supply and despite some weather hiccups in South America they still look poised to produce a much better crop than last year. The bears also point to the nearby uncertainty surrounding trade relations with Mexico and several other important buyers of U.S. agriculture.

Bottom-line, I can see and understand both the bullish and bearish argument, which makes me think we will be stuck in this 30 to 40 cent range for the next several weeks. As a producer I still believe we are going to get a better opportunity to market both old-crop and new-crop corn. I'm not looking for anything explosive to the upside, but I think we could still see another leg higher. 

From a technical perspective it feels like new-crop DEC17 corn has more heavy support down in the $3.65 to $3.75 range with heavier resistance in the $4.00 to $4.20 range. Old-crop support seems to be in the $3.40 to $3.50 range, with upside resistance in the $3.70 to $3.80 range.

As a producer I will be looking to make more sales and reduce risk if we test the upper ends of these ranges. As a spec I continue to like the thought of trading with a range-bound mindset and looking to take advantage of cheap volatility. 

About the Author

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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