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When Will Corn Belt Dry Out?

Mike Wilson, Senior Executive Editor

April 14, 2008

3 Min Read

(Click on title to read article)

Farmers are calling with that sound in their voice. You know the one — a bit like when the doctor is giving out some bad news.

"I hear corn might go to $13 this summer if we don't start drying out soon,•bCrLf one whispered gravely this morning. "Well, if we can't plant corn, we'll be planting a lot more soybeans,•bCrLf I replied cheerily. He didn't laugh.

It seems every Midwest farmer is late to the dance this spring, waiting for fields to dry out. The pressure is heightened by these out-of-this-world prices, and the stories of rising food prices from around the world.

A fertilizer executive told me this morning he expects corn carryover next fall will be at all time lows because we will "only•bCrLf plant 86 million acres of corn this spring. He figures that means we'll plant 95 million acres in 2009. (Where we will get the fertilizer for all that corn is another story).

A bunch of countries are already putting the clamps down on their own exports, which is a good-news, bad-news deal for us. More market opportunities for American farmers, of course. But it also puts the notion in some people's minds that we should be doing the same thing here.

The so-called "band of bakers•bCrLf that marched on Capitol Hill last month to convince Congress to restrict exports is just the beginning. The World Food Program leader is convinced biofuels are the cause of high food prices. It would take just one swipe of a pen from the USDA Secretary to lower those mandates in the Energy Bill. As long as commodity prices remain high, expect more of that talk.

But all that rhetoric might just calm down if you could just get a crop into the field.

Wet all over It's just been a slow, wet, cold spring here in Central Illinois, and a lot of other places, too. We had snow in some places around the upper Midwest this weekend.

John Scott, Gilby, ND, told me most farmers would be planting corn by now but there's no one in the fields yet.

"I think global warming is over,•bCrLf says Scott, who farms about 100 miles north of Fargo. "That concerns me this far north, because it might shorten our corn growing season. The thing about corn in the U.S. now is, they can plant it all in five days with this big equipment. But when it's wet, it does take awhile to dry out.•bCrLf

Dennis Russell, who farms near Butler, MO, says most farmers in his area would be planting by now also. But it's just too wet and they're call ing for 60% chance of rain by Friday. "It was cool today with a little frost,•bCrLf he told me.

•Green up' maps Fred Gesser, Senior Meteorologist at weather forecasting company Planalytics, puts together what he calls a GreenReport which combines all kinds of satellite and moisture maps to show where crops are at certain points in the growing year. You can see by the attached reports that the Midwest is very slow to "green up•bCrLf this spring compared to other years.

"By early May, we will be able to see what portion of this year's corn crop will be vulnerable to a fall freeze,•bCrLf he says. "Greenness information doesn't always match crop condition reports... nothing is perfect. And weeds appear •green' as well. But a lesson learned in 2007 was to cross check greenness with plant damage  -the Easter weekend wheat freeze in Kansas and hail damage in Wisconsin.•bCrLf

Forecast here in Central Illinois is 70 degrees and sunshine by weekend. Things will look a lot better once those planters start rolling.

How's it look in your part of the world? Click on the comment link below. When the comment screen comes up select "other" or "anonymous" to post a comment. The "other" choice will ask for a name and Web site, but that is optional. We look forward to hearing from you.

 

About the Author(s)

Mike Wilson

Senior Executive Editor, Farm Progress

Mike Wilson is the senior executive editor for Farm Progress. He grew up on a grain and livestock farm in Ogle County, Ill., and earned a bachelor's degree in agricultural journalism from the University of Illinois. He was twice named Writer of the Year by the American Agricultural Editors’ Association and is a past president of the organization. He is also past president of the International Federation of Agricultural Journalists, a global association of communicators specializing in agriculture. He has covered agriculture in 35 countries.

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