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Forget the polls, higher corn prices signaled Trump victory.

Bryce Knorr, Contributing market analyst

November 9, 2016

1 Min Read

In the end, the corn market was right.

While polls and pundits failed to predict the outcome of Tuesday’s surprising vote for Donald Trump, the corn market maintained its perfect streak in predicting presidential elections.

Back in early August we reported on results of Farm Futures research that showed the power of corn as a predictor. Our study showed that corn had correctly called every Presidential election since 1960. That record is still intact.


We looked at December corn futures from Sept. 1 to Election Day. In years when incumbents or their party’s successor won, corn prices fell. When the White House changed parties with a Democratic victory, the market was also lower, as happened with John Kennedy in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Bill Clinton in 1992 and Barrack Obama in 2008.

But when a Republican won a “change” election, corn prices moved higher. That took place with Richard Nixon in 1968, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George Bush in 2000.

Tuesday’s election kept the streak going. December futures closed at $3.2375 on Sept. 1 this year, finishing at $3.5425 on Tuesday.

Corn market calls election – again

Corn market calls election – again

About the Author(s)

Bryce Knorr

Contributing market analyst, Farm Futures

Bryce Knorr first joined Farm Futures Magazine in 1987. In addition to analyzing and writing about the commodity markets, he is a former futures introducing broker and Commodity Trading Advisor. A journalist with more than 45 years of experience, he received the Master Writers Award from the American Agricultural Editors Association.

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