Farm Progress

Cattle market fundamentals appear friendly

Be careful right now with your decisions under duress: They could cost you later.

Chris Swift 1, Blogger

October 19, 2016

2 Min Read

 

Outside market forces appear very friendly toward cattle at this time.

As energy prices move higher, the increased revenue is anticipated to benefit a large number of energy producers. Other commodities moving higher as well should help reduce the undertow cattle are in. It appears the Australian and Canadian dollars are breaking out to the upside. This has been a benefactor to higher gold this morning.

Traders are not anxious to stick their necks out with such a minor move off contract lows. There has been a significant increase in the vocalization of algorithmic and high-frequency trading.

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Clients from multiple states have told of meetings with US Senators recently. Interestingly enough, an article I penned over the weekend on this very topic was directly in line with one written for the Iowa Cattlemen's Association. This, coupled with action taken this morning by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to delay release of latter-month futures contracts, makes it appear changes are in progress to help mitigate some of the more violent trading.

Recall though, and take this with a grain of salt, but while algorithm and high-frequency traders may impact trading volatility through the trading day, they had no impact on decisions to increase or decrease the herd size, or the weight to which the animal grew that increased beef production.

This is a very fine line being walked. Decisions being made now under duress may not be of significant benefit in times to come.

An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

About the Author

Chris Swift 1

Blogger

Chris Swift is a broker and advisor in Nashville, Tennessee, offering technical and mechanical analysis of the commodity market to help people improve their risk management.

To contact Swift about hedging or to subscribe to his daily market comments at:

shootinthebull.com/commodity-market-comments/

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